WA on track for Labor landslide

From The Australian:

Liberal Party internal polling is showing a statewide swing against the Barnett government of about 14 per cent, a result that would hand the Labor Party more than 20 extra seats and make Mark McGowan premier in a landslide election victory next month.

The polling explains the West Australian Liberals’ desperation to do a preference deal with a ­resurgent One Nation ahead of the March 11 state election.

Senior Liberals believe the deal could save a few seats from being claimed by Labor. Liberal Party sources have told The Australian that recent internal polling had shown a two-party preferred vote of 57 per cent for Labor to the Liberal-National alliance’s 43 per cent. This is worse for the Liberals than a Newspoll survey published last month which showed Labor leading by 54 to 46 per cent.

If Labor wins 57 per cent of the statewide vote, and assuming the swing was uniform, it would lead to the loss of key seats held by ministers including Treasurer Mike Nahan in Riverton, Health Minister John Day in Kalamunda and Environment Minister Albert Jacob in Burns Beach.

It’s certainly the drubbing that Barnett and Nahan deserve but I’m not sure it will change much.

David Llewellyn-Smith

Comments

  1. Mining BoganMEMBER

    All it will change is who gets the blame. By the end of this year everything in WA will be Labor’s fault.

    Rupes and St Mal’s ABC will ensure that.

    • Considering Whitlam caused the 1973 worldwide oil crisis, Keating the early 90’s Western World recession and that little upstart Rudd started something called the “Global Financial Crisis” WA Labor destroying the mining boom five years after said boom actually finished would be expected.

      • It’s interesting that while preaching the Gospel of Personal Responsibility, Conservatives fall back on blaming everybody else when things go wrong.

      • and Ms Hanson will be blamed for the next Ice Age in the northern hemisphere and snow, hot and windy times here.
        At least China has built those huge empty cities all set up and ready for diaspora when parts of the country are ice covered.
        Melbourne keeps saying Global heating burn to crisp like Mars and and does zero re the prediction that CBD will be underwater if that is correct.

    • + lots BUT with the ALP backing Big mining and no extra tax that the CP are proposing I think that Laboril will have a significant honeymoon period Kerry Stokes’ West.

  2. WA is/was the the Jewell in the Crown for the Liberals. Controlling the state gave the Liberals a political fortress, with positions of power and the ability to raise significant donations. Of course this has largely collapsed since the mining boom deflated, but WA was still a very important part of LNP power. The coming state bloodbath does not bode well for the Federal Liberals in 2019, especially if they lose seats to One Nation, which is very likely. The Nationals are a much weaker force in WA, they are very vulnerable to ON. If Federal Liberal malaise continues, and it will, this will easily mask a lacklustre performance by WA Labor, just as Barry O’Farrell and Baird had all their early disasters masked by the Gillard/Rudd years.

    • The 2013 WA result was certainly masked by the situation in Federal politics, which is partly why the required swing for the ALP seems so massive and is completely believable.

  3. If the swing is as large of that, plus the Nationals do well, and One Nation wins at least a few lower house seats, then there becomes an existential threat to the WA Liberals. There is even a slight possibility of the Liberals not being the Official Opposition (which would mean a lot less staff and not electing the Opposition Leader).

    • I see 2 choices:

      1. Become the change you want and run for election yourself or
      2. don’t vote and blame everyone else for the outcome

      • Well 1. isn’t possible this election so let’s just pop a line through that one. And, well, I don’t believe in 2. so that just leaves the choices you don’t see.

    • Don’t laugh, but the Micro Business Party and the Australian Cyclist Party both have a suite of sensible sounding policies. Of particular interest, the ACP propose the removal of NG for existing properties (a non-core policy: https://australian-cyclists-party.org.au/our-policies-3/). I’ve sent a query to MBP asking how many shits they give about fair ‘affordable’ demand-side housing policy issues. (http://microbusinessparty.org.au/our-policies/). Waiting to hear back, but there is an ACP candidate in my electorate so that’s the way I’m leaning come March.

      • If I vote for one of these cats, I still get to sneer at my knuckle-dragging sandgroper brethren when we eventually get the government we so deserve.

      • boomengineeringMEMBER

        I used to cycle in WA many years ago so lets replace the housing economy with a cycle economy after all every thing goes in cycles.

      • Mining BoganMEMBER

        Geez Boom, you cycled in WA and are here to talk about it!

        Are you one of the X-Men or something?

      • boomengineeringMEMBER

        I actually had 68 on the chain ring and 11 on the cluster, going to work was a dream but back against the Freo Doc doubled the time.
        And Bogan true,can’t believe I’m still alive. I spearfish (swim to) at The Wall 1 klm NE off the tip of Long Reef at night by myself ,without a torch (moonlight), made my own hang glider( broken arm) surfed Margrets at 15m swell(only one out), used to dive tunnels near Penguin Is (come out other side of small rocky island), and been to some crazy places.When people ask what the most dangerous thing I’ve done I answer ride a pushbike on Pittwater Rd, but I could include WA.

      • boomengineeringMEMBER

        Top one wouldn’t edit
        I actually had 68 on the chain ring and 11 on the cluster ( didn’t want to undo my powerlifting), going to work was a dream but back against the Freo Doc doubled the time.
        And Bogan true,can’t believe I’m still alive. I spearfish (swim to) at The Wall 1 klm NE off the tip of Long Reef at night by myself without a torch (moonlight), made my own hang glider( broken arm) surfed Margrets at 15m swell (only one out)and Sydney’s 1974 swell, used to dive tunnels near Penguin Is (come out the other side of small rocky island), and been to some crazy places.When people ask what the most dangerous thing I’ve done I answer ride a pushbike on Pittwater Rd, but I could include WA.

      • innocent bystanderMEMBER

        MBP? sounds a little like trickle sideways?

        10. Ensure that any businesses adversely affected by changes in licensing arrangements be fully compensated for any losses suffered.

        Translation: full compo for taxi licenses with the onset of uber etc??

  4. *I’m not sure it will change much*

    I am sure it will not change much.
    But the resident mining shill on these boards (what name does he use these days?) will have kittens over Labor winning, so it will be worth it for that reason alone.

  5. Labor really needs to throw the election. Might as well leave the Liberals to muck out the stables since they’re the ones who shat over everything.

    • It’d be easy for Labor or Liberal to throw an election. All they need to do is announce a suite of reasonable policies that would actually deal with the problems of Australia.

  6. They need to do a 2-party preferred between ALP and the LIB-NAT-ONP coalition (even though they all hate each other).

    I guess not many voters would preference ONP-LAB-NAT or ONP-LAB-LIB, but there might be a few % who do.

    • Getting re-elected is all that counts for these Cnuts.
      With the levels of disenchantment being recorded on this site, the lack of expectatin in any party or politician to make a positive difference to the common wealth, I expect to see ,in the near future, people taking matters into their own hands.
      There is a wiff of insurection on the breeze.

  7. If Nahan loses his seat that would be really good news.

    As a general rule I don’t wish ill will on people but if a large meteor could fall on Tim Wilson that would be perfect.

  8. WA deserves a break! Over the past 8 years the LNP has told local firms to invest in new equipment in preparation for the boom, then stood and cheered while resources companies drove up local costs with their (Management-incompetence driven) skills-shortage and massive subsidies. They celebrated as workers left long-term skilled jobs to seek a quick quid on short term construction work. The LNP also sadistically told small local manufacturing firms that they were too expensive to compete with the overseas slavers and encouraged them to use 457s. As soon as the boom ended they raised the price of TAFE just to ensure that there will be a permanent skills-shortage. The 457s are still here, there are no apprenticeships because there is no work and the LNP has left the state with no new productive infrastructure or even a plan to see us through the quiet times. At least we will be able to shuffle around Elizabeth Quay and the new football cathedral and look at the pretties as we go through the bins looking for scraps. The ALP may still hold neo-lib tendencies but they can’t be worse than what we’ve had.

  9. Once ALP get back in, we shall see how much they care about the homeless.

    I am guessing they will not care at all – just like the Greens.