French election thrown into chaos

While we’re all fixated on the deglobalisation fireworks of Donald Trump and Pauline Hanson, neither is the most pressing threat. That honour still lies in Europe where French elections are again entering chaos as the conservative candidate, Francois Fillon, implodes, via The Independent:

French presidential hopeful and long-time front-runner François Fillon could be eliminated in the first round of the election, according to new polling, following allegations he paid close to €1m – most of it allegedly taxpayer-funded – to his wife and children as parliamentary aides with little evidence of work.

Less than three months before the vote, the right-wing candidate in the French elections is embroiled in a damaging scandal, which could yet dash his presidential hopes. Mr Fillon has denounced the allegations, saying that the work was genuine.

Conservative Mr Fillon has dropped below 20 per cent in the polls, paving the way for National Front (FN) candidate Marine Le Pen to extend her lead.

Far-right candidate Ms Le Pen is now leading the latest polls by Elabe and published in Les Echos with up to 27 per cent of voting intentions in the first round, which she is set to win. She is followed on 23 per cent by independent candidate Emmanuel Macron – who is expected to win the presidential race in a head-to head with Ms Le Pen in a second round.

Here are the latest poll results which do not look good for globalisation:

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Thankfully Ms Le Pen still lagging Emmanuel Macron handsomely:

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Mr Macron is a card-carrying europhile and open borders convert so the election shapes as a very clear pro and anti immigration vote.

That leaves Macron vulnerable if security circumstances deteriorate. Le Pen is probably wondering if Donald Trump has turned into a rather large liability.

Even so, with Macron so clearly in front it may provide some relief for the euro.

Comments

  1. Macron, ex-Rothschild banker and member of the catastrophically unpopular PS Hollande administration. His flank is wide open, as being espoused as a globalist shill for the elites. We’re gonna wait till the match-up is confirmed then launch an all out assault on social media. Marine is a much better chance than those polls suggest. I’m With Her! Time to smash that high, hard glass ceiling right liberals? 😉 This is the West’s last stand. Signed, RWNJ.

    • “We’re gonna wait till the match-up is confirmed then launch an all out assault on social media.”

      Who is “we”? Your friends in Moscow? Are you going to be tweeting Pepe memes at your “enemies”?

      LMAO

      • Yes any conservative that doesn’t want cultural marxists wiping out Anglo countries is a Russian puppet. You’re probably too far gone for me to engage you. Any opposition to the cultural marxists is a Russian agent, is a conspiracy theorist, is a Nazi, is a facist, is trash, is filth, is a mysognist, I get it mate.

      • @Terror Australis

        Look at the left, hurling insults at anyone who doesn’t agree with them – how clever. Worked well for Hillary.

        I’m a left wing progressive liberal – and those on the left need to learn to shut the f*** up with the insults, demeaning comments, and bullying in attempting to silence opposition. It stinks of fascism and is only working to divide the world and push the masses into the arms of the far right.

        Seriously – its pathetic, anyone can do it. How’s the view from your basedment Terror Australis ?

        No one memed Trump over the line – Hilary went up against probably the single worst candidate in US history – who can deny that – and she lost. Flat out lost a totally unlosable election. And then people blame 16 year old kids for her losing ?

        Hilary lost because she spent her entire time insulting the voters, rigged the election and flat out represents the worst of corporate global corruption in the word today – FAR MORE than Trump ever could even hope for.

        Just pathetic.

        I am embarrassed to call my self a left wing progressive liberal – ashamed.

      • Far from triggered, Nath. My blood pressure didn’t budge, the insults lost their bite long ago. It’s Friday, my shares are up and looking forward to a run soon. Cheers mate.

      • @ Michael
        And when Trump and the right insults the voters it’s completely acceptable. The right does that they accuse the left of doing in a much greater scale yet it’s completely ok. Every shortcoming you accuse Clinton of is present in larger doses in Trump.

      • This Mr Faraday cat, he gets it! Trump won because Hillary was a flawed candidate to begin with. She also didn’t say or do much of anything, because she thought she had it in the bag. She called everyone in “fly over” states a deplorable. She, and her cronies miscalculated, and she paid the price. Let me add that the Trump campaigns final advertising campaign ad was on the finest ever created. It captured the mood perfectly.

      • @JC
        That’ deliberately misrepresenting what was said. She was saying one shouldn’t judge Trump supporters based on what the other half was doing.

        “You know, just to be grossly generalistic, you could put half of Trump’s supporters into what I call the basket of deplorables. Right? The racist, sexist, homophobic, xenophobic, Islamaphobic — you name it. And unfortunately there are people like that. And he has lifted them up. He has given voice to their websites that used to only have 11,000 people, now have 11 million. He tweets and retweets offensive, hateful, mean-spirited rhetoric. Now some of those folks, they are irredeemable. But thankfully they are not America.
        The other basket of Trump supporters are people who feel that the government has let them down, the economy has let them down, nobody cares about them, nobody worries about what happens to their lives and their futures, and they’re just desperate for change. It doesn’t really even matter where it comes from. They don’t buy everything he says, but he seems to hold out some hope that their lives will be different. They won’t wake up and see their jobs disappear, lose a kid to heroin, feel like they’re in a dead end. Those are people we have to understand and empathize with as well.

      • Half of half, is still a very big number to alienate! Besides it is semantics at this point. She lost, and i’m glad she did at the time, and i’m still glad!

      • @JC
        She did say “You know, just to be grossly generalistic”.

        Also you have to identify with the deplorable half to take offence, yet you don’t identify with the other half that she specifically said people should empathize with.

        Anyway the controversy is exactly the opposite to the point she is trying to make. It became Hillary is calling Trump supporters deplorables rather than what she is actually saying, which is you should empathize with Trump supporters.

      • How can alienating people who are already not going to vote for you, stop them voting for you ?

      • Hello Nathan, I thought I was a lefty from when I first voted and celebrated Whitlam’s win and was aware of fascism (govt and business ruling together as per Mussolini definition), the wonderful kind NSW abortion Clinic etc and wished Aus to be free from the brit Queen etc.
        Now have discovered as I support Aus first, sustainable population and no interference in other countries etc that I am now an extreme right wing person. raycist too. so funny. and despised by the chattering classes.

      • Now have discovered as I support Aus first, sustainable population and no interference in other countries etc that I am now an extreme right wing person. raycist too.

        Last I checked, SAP aren’t considered “extreme right wing”.

    • @Andrew – – Good on you Andrew – I’m for Ms Le Pen ! She’s the real deal & the others are arse wipes.

  2. For those that haven’t seen it, Mark Blyth’s Global Trumpism is worth a watch.
    https://youtu.be/Bkm2Vfj42FY

    To paraphrase his view (poorly), the political status quo of the past 30 years can’t deal with the problems they’ve created. Brexit and Trump (Right) and Corbyn and Sanders (Left) are manifestations of the crumbling of the center. Europe is the big WHAT IF and we ain’t seen nothing yet.

    • 1:14:00 pretty much sums up what Donald Trump is! As accidental a politician as Trueman…..and it worked !!!

    • I’ve watched this a few times now and started to recommend it to friends and family.
      Everything started to make sense to me after watching it.

      It’s why the rise of ON in Australia is almost inevitable. When I say that to people they tell me it’s impossible, so I tell them to watch it then come back and talk.

      I think a lot of people feel powerless and are just voting to wreck the joint, they think they’ve got nothing to lose.

    • Corbyn has almost no political support now. There wasn’t huge support for Sanders either. Even single payer health bill in his home state got crushed.

    • footsore, its Marine for Presidente. and I am with her.
      Regardless of finer points and values the cycle has turned. and her time has come. She speaks well too.

      • $4 on Sportsbet (I was getting $4.50/$4.60 on Trump the night before). Might need a Betfair account!

      • Bookmaker odds on a election are irrelevant as it’s the weight of money, not the number of bets that determines the odds.

        When it comes to voting, on the other hand, every vote carries the same weight.

        Ahead of Brexit, I read an article quoting a British bookmaker who said his company had received a handful of massive bets on Bremain but had received hundreds of small bets on Brexit. At that point it was obvious the outcome was likely to be a lot closer than the odds suggested.

    • Ronin8317MEMBER

      The poll showed Trump beating Clinton right after FBI start investigating Clinton’s email, with a 10% swing from before. They are all over the place, but some of them are correct.

      • What’s the matter with nearly ALL the Posters comments to this article ?
        Hardly anyone has mentioned the French election Candidates which is the Fucking topic.
        All seem to want to Trump talk – and about USA. Talk about stupid !

    • The difference is that Clintonesques have propped up Trump in hopes he will be an easy target at the end. A gross miscalculation.
      This can be done only once in a decade or two.

      LePen will gain huge exposure and look forward to the next elections.

  3. Macron and Fillon both handsomely beat Le Pen in the second round polling. The appeal of the far right is extremely limited outside of its base. Even the socialists Harmon is likely to beat her too but there doesn’t seem to be any polling on that at the moment.
    All in all, there seems to be a real four way contest now between the four of them and there is actually a fair chance that Le Pen misses the second round. Both Marcon and Harmon do have links with the current administration, but both have left because of disputes with it. Both are therefore Alternate candidates whilst Fillon actually looks to collapsing badly because he is not an alternative type.

    • So you’re telling me Fillon’s (a Marine-lite) base would go to Macron over Le Pen in second round? Hmm not sure tbh.

      • Pretty much. The Republicans will come out in full force for the non-Le Pen candidate in the second round. The party knows that it would be existential risk to allow the National Front to displace them as lead party of the right. Never doubt the power of self interest.

    • Fillon stuffed up. Employed his wife for 500,000 euros in fake job plus jobs for his 2 kids.
      He is out and thats the filth of the entrenched snouts in the trough thats showing up everywhere.

  4. Terror Australis

    Don’t write off Benoit Hammon who has been described as “The French Bernie Sanders”.
    He wasn’t supposed to win the Socialist party nomination but ended up getting it in a landslide. In Frances two-stage presidential race he has a decent chance.

    • I hope he gets it. France is buggered anyway but he’ll accelerate its descent with his whacky policies.

      Every productive person will leave the country and he’ll be left figuring out how to afford to pay millions of public sector employees, immigrants and dole bludgers. The entertainment value will be every bit as good as Trump.

  5. Don’t believe those polls, just as we saw in the recent US election, the mainstream media completely misjudged the polls. Vote #1 Le Pen

      • Bit of a difference there don’t you think? Was hardly a choice between populist/collectivists vs globalist progressives like BREXIT or The Trumpening.

      • Nope not at all, it was a choice between business as usual, or RC on the rampant banks and cut back on NG parasites. It’s all the right that kept ignoring the polling and said LNP had it in the bag.

      • Exactly right Simon, two sides of the same globalist coin. ON is the anti-Establishment candidate which anti-globalists are flocking to, hence its meteoric second-coming.

      • Aus electoral system is structured to hold the status quo. Despite extreme loss of confidence in pollies.
        means any vote not on the top parties in the house Reps gets preferences allocated to them… MOST of the time.

        So I will vote senate below the line and only vote on Reps if think my candidate has a chance. we are fked.

  6. The LA Times newspaper polling said that Trump will win and that polling was done online. Makes sense, people will tell you online what they will not over the phone.

    So are these French polls online or over the phone?

    • Except the LA Times poll had the overall result at Hillary 42.9% and Trump 46.7%. The actual result was Hillary 48.2% and Trump 46.1%. They were way off.

      Is like saying you deserve marks in a math exam for guessing the correct answer but you “working out” is completely wrong.

      • They were not the closest. If they were they would’ve have something that’s remotely similar to Hillary 48.2% and Trump 46.1%. Their numbers were way off compared to actuals. You would have flipped a coin and got Trumps and say the coin is the most accurate poll.

      • Ok, so the actual result had H-T at +2.1%.
        LA Times had polling at H-T at -3.8%
        2.1%-(-3.8%)=5.9% difference from the actuals.

        So any polling that has a difference of +/- 5.9% or less is equal or more accurate.
        Here’s a list of polls:
        https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/national-polls/

        Namely the first one, ABC/Washington Post poll is more accurate.

        H-T at +4%,
        Difference from actual is 2.1%-(+4%)= -1.9%
        Therefore it is more accurate.

      • Who won the election?
        Did the LA Times poll predict the winner.

        By that I mean, the person actually sitting in the West Wing as we speak.

      • @superunknown
        National polls don’t really predict winners though. LA Times poll is a national poll.

        Also by your logic, anyone who flip a coin and get a T is a master election predictor now right? By the same token, anyone who wins lottery jackpot can say “all the expert who say lottery is a dud investment are wrong, because I won”.