Essential poll: Cut CGT not negative gearing

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Some good polling here for a dying Coalition if it can be bothered trying to live:

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of property investors receiving tax deductions if the cost of buying and maintaining their investment properties is more than the revenue they receive from them (called negative gearing)?

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other   March 2016 May 2016
Total approve 44%   34% 62% 30% 41%   41% 43%
Total disapprove 35%   45% 23% 57% 39%   37% 36%
Strongly approve 16% 10% 23% 8% 20% 13% 14%
Approve 28% 24% 39% 22% 21% 28% 29%
Disapprove 18% 21% 14% 23% 23% 23% 22%
Strongly disapprove 17% 24% 9% 34% 16% 14% 14%
Don’t know 21% 21% 15% 13% 20% 22% 21%

44% approve of negative gearing and 35% disapprove. This is much the same result as when this question was asked in May last year.

Those most likely to approve were Liberal/National voters (62%) and those earning more than $2,000 per week (60%).

45% of Labor voters, 57% of Greens voters, 44% of those aged 55+ and 50% of those earing $600-1,000 per week disapproved.

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of property investors receiving a reduction in Capital Gains Tax on the profits made selling investment properties?

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other
Total approve 37%   32% 52% 20% 35%
Total disapprove 41%   50% 31% 63% 46%
Strongly approve 13% 8% 16% 7% 24%
Approve 24% 24% 36% 13% 11%
Disapprove 23% 25% 22% 22% 29%
Strongly disapprove 18% 25% 9% 41% 17%
Don’t know 22% 18% 17% 18% 19%

37% approve of property investors receiving a reduction in Capital Gains Tax and 41% disapprove.

Those most likely to approve were Liberal/National voters (52%) and those earning more than $2,000 per week (55%).

50% of Labor voters, 63% of Greens voters, 55% of those aged 55+ and 58% of those earing $600-1,000 per week disapproved.

Q. What do you think would be the impact on house prices of limiting negative gearing and reducing the concession on Capital Gains Tax?

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other
House prices would fall 19%   22% 17% 17% 21%
House prices would continue to rise but at a slower rate 32%   34% 34% 40% 27%
House prices would continue to rise at the same rate 17% 14% 22% 16% 21%
Don’t know 32% 30% 27% 26% 31%

51% think that limiting negative gearing and reducing the concession on Capital Gains Tax would have an impact on house prices. 19% think house prices would fall and 32% think they would rise at a slower rate. Only 17% think house prices would continue to rise at the same rate.

There were not major differences across demographic and voter groups.

Q. Which issue do you think is more important for the Federal government to address – rising energy prices or housing affordability?

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other   Aged 18-34 Aged 35-54 Aged 55+
Rising energy prices 44%   39% 51% 27% 56% 29% 46% 59%
Housing affordability 46%   51% 43% 65% 39% 57% 44% 36%
Don’t know 10% 10% 6% 8% 5% 14% 10% 5%

46% think housing affordability is a more important issue and 44% think rising energy prices are a more important issue.

Those most likely to think housing affordability is more important were Greens voters (65%), aged 18-34 (58%) and those with university education (54%)

Those most likely to think energy prices are more important were Liberal/National voters (51%) and those aged 55+ (59%).

I’m surprised by the support for negative gearing but Do-nothing Malcolm should note the support for CGT reform.

Check out the Green vote on housing affordability. They’re seriously betraying their own supporter base. Time to nail lower immigration.

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About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.