Retail trade figures for November are out this morning from the ABS, and its a big miss with only a 0.2% headline rise, when economists were expected double that for a bullish Christmas retail trade period. Anecdotally it looks Christmas was not that good for retailers, but we won’t know the official states until after the RBA meets next month.
Here’s the gist from the ABS:
In current prices, the trend estimate for Australian turnover rose 0.4% in November 2016 following a rise of 0.4% in October 2016 and a rise of 0.4% in September 2016.The seasonally adjusted estimate for Australian turnover rose 0.2% in November 2016 following a rise of 0.5% in October 2016 and a rise of 0.6% in September 2016.
The original estimate for Australian turnover rose 3.1% in November 2016. The original estimate for chains and other larger retailers rose 3.7% in November 2016. The original estimate for smaller retailers rose 2.0% in November 2016.
By State is interesting with WA dragging everything down as its mining boom and employment situation falters, but Queensland holds up.
And by industry the standouts are household goods, mainly hardware and DIY – up 1.3% seasonally adjusted, although no one seems to be buying electrical/electronic goods (down 1.1%):
Department stores are off though, down 0.3%:
The Aussie dollar reacted to the downside on the news, breaking local support and heading to 73.40 against USD:
Just a reminder, don’t shop at K-Mart for Christmas – or anytime! Worst customer service ever.