From NAB:
The December NAB Monthly Business Survey indicated a reprieve from the steady moderation in business conditions seen late last year. That outcome points to a stronger outlook for the economy, but we remain cautious given other aspects of the Survey that suggest the rebound might prove to be temporary. Weakness in retail conditions is particularly concerning, while we are not seeing any real signs in the Survey of a convincing recovery in non-mining investment – crucial to both near-term and longer-term growth prospects (although the drag from the mining sector should soon ease). While some ‘bounce-back’ from the weather affected Q3 GDP can be expected, a return to a more subdued growth track thereafter still seems likely as the positive effects from the housing construction cycle, commodity exports, and (temporarily) higher commodity prices washes out. Two more 25bp rate cuts are still expected from the RBA this year in response to on-going low inflation and a more subdued growth outlook.
Quite right. Data was very mixed:
Employment is stuck despite a bounce back in conditions and capex is falling away as capacity remains ample:
Hello secular stagnation.
