As summarised earlier, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) today released its labour force report for November, which registered a 39,100 rise in total employment but an increase in the headline unemployment rate to 5.7%.
In trend terms, the unemployment rate was flat at 5.64%:
Again, total employment rose a seasonally adjusted 39,100 to 11,938,900. Full-time jobs jumped by 39,300, whereas part-time employment fell by 200:
The participation rate rose to 64.6% over the month:
The trend in total employment continues to flatline after last October’s and November’s numberwang surge:
And because last October’s and November’s surge has rolled-off, trend annual employment growth continues to weaken and is being driven exclusively by part-time employment, with full-time jobs contracting:
As shown above, trend full-time jobs growth is negative at -0.6% versus 3.8% growth for part-time jobs.
The proportion of the population in full-time work remains at a record low:
In November, the Melbourne housing/population ponzi economy drove all of the jobs growth over the past year, accounting for 105% of national jobs growth in seasonally adjusted terms, with the rest of Australia going backwards:
The state seasonally-adjusted figures are notoriously volatile and subject to a big margin of error. As such, the below chart tracks state jobs growth in trend terms. Here, the housing bubble epicentres of Melbourne and Sydney drove all of the nation’s jobs growth over the past year, whereas the rest of Australia collectively shed jobs:
In a continued reversal of fortunes from the mining boom days, Western Australia now has the second highest seasonally adjusted unemployment, whereas the bubble epicentres of New South Wales and Victoria have the lowest, along with Queensland:
The below chart shows the ABS’ trend unemployment rates, which again shows the bubble epicentre of New South Wales with by far the lowest unemployment, South Australia, Tasmania and Western Australia with the highest, and Victoria and Queensland with above-average unemployment:
The aggregate number of hours worked fell sharply in seasonally adjusted terms, down 10.4 million hours or 0.62% in November. Hours worked have also risen just 0.1% over the past year:
The below chart, which tracks the annual change in hours worked on a trend basis, paints a sobering picture. It shows that Victoria (Melbourne) has driven the lion’s share of growth in hours worked, with most other jurisdictions showing minimal or negative growth. Nationally, trend growth in hours worked was just 0.3% in the year to November and continues to fall:
Average hours worked is also at a record low:
Workforce participation is falling fast:
And the number of underemployed Australians has hit an all-time high 1,077,000 people or 8.5% of the labour force:
Finally, to round things out, the next chart summarises the annual change in the key employment aggregates on a seasonally-adjusted basis, which shows a mostly negative picture:
Despite this month’s seasonally adjusted bounce in full-time jobs, the labour market remains precarious.
Virtually all of the trend jobs growth is coming from the two ponzi markets of Melbourne and Sydney. Trend growth in full-time jobs is negative. Trend growth in hours worked is weak and falling. Labour force participation is falling. And underemployment is at record levels.
When the dwelling construction boom eventually rolls over, along with the closure of the car industry, the employment picture will obviously weaken further. What can realistically rise up to fill the void?
