Macro Afternoon

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by Chris Becker

Santa is losing his puff out there as exuberance turns to caution going into the short end of year trading break. With a weak overnight lead, Asian stocks are faltering – except in Australia where delusion reigns supreme and in NZ where a stronger than expected GDP print this morning is pushing risk and the Kiwi dollar higher. Most other currencies are little changed but the Aussie dollar is slipping going into the London open.

The Shanghai Composite is slipping as well after a very positive session yesterday, down 0.3% just after the lunch break to be just below the previous support level at 3140 points. The Hang Seng is doing a lot worse, down 1% and returning to its corrective phase after breaking support previously:

HSI.fsDaily

Stocks are off in Japan as well, the Nikkei down another 0.3% as Yen remains steady against USD. The USDJPY pair is stuck on a point of control at 117.60 but the short term bias remains down as the downtrend of lower highs remains intact:

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USDJPYH1

S&P Futures are falling going into the London open, as volume completely dries up – not a big shock:

S&P.fsH1
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The ASX200 is up over 0.5% to firmly close above 5600 points again even though the writing is on the wall for a poor Christmas season – both retail and property! This remains a bank driven rally with commodity stocks mixed.

The Aussie dollar remains depressed, still trying to find a bottom here at the 72.50 level against USD. I’m watching the extreme low at 72.30 going into the London session tonight to come under pressure:

AUDUSDH1
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The data calendar tonight includes a couple of important releases to keep an eye on, namely the ECB Economic Bulletin, then US durable goods orders for November.

Last minute Christmas shopping – don’t buy at Kmart!