Italy votes “no”, Renzi goes

Early indications in the Italian referendum are poor for Matteo Renzi:

Matteo Renzi seems set to lose a referendum on his flagship constitutional reforms, according to exit polls released on Sunday night, a result that could lead to the Italian prime minister’s resignation.

Although exit polls have been unreliable in Italy in the past, they suggested a wide margin of defeat for the “yes” camp championed by Mr Renzi, who designed the reforms to streamline the country’s political system. According to broadcaster Rai, the “no” camp won 58 to 54 per cent of the vote, while the “yes” camp garnered between 46 per cent and 42 per cent.

Mr Renzi is expected to speak at midnight local time, his spokesman said.

Exit polls:

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A defeat of that magnitude will not please markets. USD the big winner as EUR sinks:

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Renzi has resigned.

Comments

  1. Yes, because exit polls are always right…
    They really should be ignored entirely. They’re completely useless

  2. Italy has been an ungovernable mess since Roman times. The blame game now has a new voodoo doll and Italians, who are never at fault, are stabbing it to death. But I am sure another leader of quality will drain the swamp. Although the list of previous hopefuls (May, Trump, Mal, …) suggests otherwise. Judgement of character seems to be uncorrelated with economic acumen.

    • The Italian governance system was put together out of the ashes of the Mussolini disaster and the havoc wreaked upon the populace by siding with Germany in WW2. It’s a complicated system, but essentially the regional Governments form a system of review similar to our Senate of the lower house. It seems to be more fractious than our system and the Government who control the lower house has been frustrated in getting their policies through the review. Essentially the Renzi mob wanted to dilute this power of review by modifying the constitution.

      I agree that it has similarities with Brexit where the PM fought to stay and the populace put him firmly in his place and in the US where Trump was put in by the so called popular vote, but it also has much to do with the Eurozone and the meddling by Brussels with the Italian Banks. The Italians were poo pooing the Greeks when the Troika were tearing them apart but as Varifoukas pointed out many times, Italy would be in a similar position requiring bailouts funded by the northern partners and it came to pass in the last 12 months. This element can’t be ignored as the Italian banks via the intractible views of the ECB, ably manipulated by Germany, seriously screwed with the domestic depositors while the FIRE sector were left unscathed.

      So yes, a complicated political system which is frustrating the ability of Governments to get things done, but because Governments have failed to protect their citizens from the ravaging by the bureaucrats in the EU, they have simply had enough. IMO this is a massive blow to the EU project and particularly the Eurozone. Brussels is holding it’s breath right now but expect the usual wail of horror from the central banksters when the No vote is confirmed. The next domino is France ……… and that will be the biggie.

      • “So yes, a complicated political system which is frustrating the ability of Governments to get things done, but because Governments have failed to protect their citizens from the ravaging by the bureaucrats in the EU, they have simply had enough. IMO this is a massive blow to the EU project and particularly the Eurozone. Brussels is holding it’s breath right now but expect the usual wail of horror from the central banksters when the No vote is confirmed. The next domino is France ……… and that will be the biggie.”
        And herein lies the problem. As in the Greece, UK, US, etc, the monster is inside, always has been. The “banksters” (the Italian ones) are counting on your dream, so they can get the milkie-wilkies in the form of a cash injection by the government, same way they have always done. Devalue (cash in foreign currency) and then buy everything on the cheap. Or didn´t you get the memo? Same thing in Portugal, Spain, … I am amazed at how easy it is to trick people with the exact same rhetoric, regardless of political chirality, peddled by the likes of Le Pen, Farage, Trump or Iglesias. All of them inside people, but all claiming to “care” about the common man.

      • Jeez I’m glad we agree Jason, but what’s the alternative? A vote for the status quo let’s the plundering continue so people are taking the TINA option. Blow the place up and see what happens. IMO if Brext, Trump etc don’t deliver then the next TINA will be more serious, but it won’t happen because the French have had a gut full and when they tell Brussels they want out then the elite will finally get the picture and get with the program before it turns nasty. The fact is the elite also are in a TINA situation where if they let it drift then they are likely to lose the whole shooting box.

    • Renzi wanted power to be more centralised.

      While Canada, Spain, Scotland got a decentralisation of power.

      Maybe decentralisation is the way to go.

      • Jason, you’re position on this is confusing. Jacob and I have outlined the scenario, you kind of agree, but you’re still having a tantrum. It sounds like a bad hair day for you. What’s it all about?

  3. Italian governments come and go, Italy governs itself and the place keeps ticking over, not very well, but not disastrously. If that sounds familiar, think of NSW.

  4. Number of changes in government since WW2, as reported by Dutch news (top of my head, may be off one or two):

    UK: 21
    NL: 28
    GER: 24
    BE: 41
    IT: 61

    😛

    • Ha Ha! I remember a billboard from 1996 advertising Lavazza. It read:
      “50 years, 63 governments, and still the favourite coffee.”
      (I think they were slightly overcounting – if one minor party dropped out of the coalition and another replaced it, they counted that as a change of government)