Amid population ponzi, ScoMo refuses to boost infrastructure

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By Leith van Onselen

Let’s recall former Treasury Secretary, Ken Henry’s, stark warning that Australia must undertake a massive infrastructure building program in order to avoid being choked by rapid population growth (immigration):

“The Australian population is growing by something like 400,000 a year. Think of it: a new Canberra every year between now and the end of the century. Or, put it this way, every five years building a brand new city from scratch in Australia for 2 million people.”

“Or put it this way: building a whole new city the size of Melbourne every decade between now and the end of the century”…

“My observation in Sydney and Melbourne today, is that people already think, with very good reason, that the ratio of population to infrastructure is too high. But we have set ourselves on a journey that implies an increase in that ratio. An increase in that ratio that is associated with more congestion, longer commute times to work, increasing problems with respect to housing affordability”…

Now take a look at Treasurer Scott Morrison’s latest comments, whereby he has refused to take advantage of record low interest rates and boost infrastructure spending because the federal budget supposedly cannot afford it. From The Australian:

The Treasurer says a further boost to infrastructure investment will have to wait until the government stops having to fund its daily spending with more debt…

Mr Morrison says there remains a role for budget investment in infrastructure projects that add to productivity and the government is funding planning and development work for projects that have “strategic merit” but are not yet ready to proceed while it has committed to funding $50bn in land transport infrastructure over the six years to 2020.

Although there is a difference between “good debt” used for infrastructure and “bad debt” used to fund recurrent spending, he says the government cannot just go out and borrow for infrastructure because interest rates are low.

“Once borrowing for recurrent expenditure is under control, we will have more headroom to take on and deploy so-called good debt,” he says.

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What Scott Morrison has done right there is consign incumbent Australians – particularly those living in the major cities – to lower living standards.

Morrison, like his counterparts in the major parties, is a rabid supporter of mass immigration and a ‘Big Australia’. And he himself has acknowledged that immigrants tend to settle in inner city areas:

“When immigrants have come to major cities all around the world, they have tended to congregate around inner city areas. That has been one of the most established settlement practices for a millennia”.

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Australia’s population is projected by the government to increase by some 400,000 people a year – effectively a new Canberra – for the next 40- years, meaning that Australia will need to build-out the equivalent of three new Sydney’s over that time period to keep the stock of infrastructure per capita constant:

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Most of this growth is also projected to occur in our two major cities, which are projected to grow by 1,650 people per week (Sydney) and 1,850 people per week (Melbourne) for decades to come:

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Blind Freddy – but clearly not Scott Morrison – can see that residents in these cities are facing horrid ‘crush loading’ unless there is massive infrastructure investment.

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Neither can Scott Morrison credibly shift blame to the states. Because of the vertical fiscal imbalances embedded in Australia’s federal system, the Commonwealth collects 82% of total tax revenue versus the state’s and territories’ 15%, and local government’s 3%. This has left the states critically starved of funds to cope with the population influx hoisted upon them by the federal government, which controls immigration policy.

The choice is simple: if the Turnbull Government chooses to maintain a mass immigration policy, then it must fund the required infrastructure and services. But if it does not wish to provide such funding, then it must dramatically cut immigration.

However, to maintain the throttle on population growth, while at the same time refusing to undertake the necessary associated investment, is a guaranteed recipe for destroying Australian living standards and is totally unacceptable.

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Australians and its media must hold the Turnbull Government to account.

unconventionaleconomist@hotmail.com

About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.