Tin ear Abbott still doesn’t understand Budget reform

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By Leith van Onselen

A key reason why Tony Abbott failed as Prime Minister is because he failed to acknowledge the true situation facing the Budget and attempted to pin the blame for “Labor’s Budget mess” on too high government spending under the guise of “lifters versus leaners”, while altogether ignoring the collapse of revenue.

Abbott then tried to argue that to not address the Budget deficit was a form of “intergenerational theft” that would leave future taxpayers worse-off, only to then target Budget cuts unfairly at the young and disadvantaged (e.g. via university cuts/fee rises and reducing access to unemployment benefits), while leaving the swathe of tax expenditures benefiting richer, older Australians (e.g. superannuation concessions, negative gearing, and CGT concessions) untouched.

Over the weekend, Tony Abbott displayed that he has learned little during his 14 months in exile to the backbench, offering the following advice on Budget repair in an interview broadcast on Sky News. From The Australian:

Mr Abbott urged Mr Turnbull to focus more of his efforts on the budget repair task which he began in the unpopular 2014 budget, arguing for tougher measures to ensure there was no loss of Australia’s AAA credit rating.

“There needs to be a big new push on budget repair,” Mr Abbott said. “If we don’t get the budget better we are ripping-off our children and our grandchildren. It’s a form of inter-generational theft.

“I think we need to have another look at some of the issues from the 2014 budget because we can’t go on indulging in what I used to describe as a cash splash with borrowed money.”

Mr Abbott said the budget surplus should be achieved through spending restraint rather than higher taxes, arguing this could be used to sharpen differences between the Liberal and Labor sides of politics.

“This should be a fundamental distinction between the two sides of politics,” he said. “At the very least, we need to have an absolute opposition to new spending which isn’t absolutely essential.”

Mr Abbott warned the loss of the AAA credit rating would hand a huge political opportunity to Bill Shorten and held out hope he mid year economic review would go some way to ensuring there was no downgrade.

“Let’s hope that actions taken in MYEFO and in next year’s budget can keep the AAA rating,” he said. “Obviously, (losing the rating) will provide the Opposition with a bit of a turkey shoot and that’s the last thing that any government would want.”

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Malcolm Turnbull would be wise to steer in the opposite direction of Tony Abbott.

Under Abbott’s leadership we witnessed the Coalition perversely attempt to cut unemployment benefits, which are already at razor-thin levels, at the same time as it vigorously defended superannuation and property tax lurks, thus ensuring its wealthy constituents were spared from sharing the Budget pain.

Moreover, Abbott’s blanket opposition to any tax increases will make Budget repair next to impossible, heightening the risk of Australia losing its AAA rating and playing straight into Labor’s hands.

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The Turnbull Government’s only hope of holding on to government ultimately rests with it capturing the ‘middle ground’ and developing good policy in the national interest – reforms that blend Budget restraint with fairness, as well as combine efficiency with equity.

The last thing that the Coalition should do is follow Abbott’s failed script, lurch further to the right, and govern in the interests of the wealthy elite.

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About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.