It’s time for a population plebisite

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By Leith van Onselen

Yesterday it was revealed in Fairfax that senators Pauline Hanson and Jacquie Lambie are seeking a plebiscite at the next Federal Election that would cover three topics:

  • on same-sex marriage
  • indigenous recognition in the constitution;
  • and voluntary euthanasia.

While these issues no doubt have some merit there is a topic that deserves far more attention and, most importantly, a vote from the Australian people: the size of Australia’s future population.

In recent months we have watched on as senior political figures like Scott Morrison, Chris Bowen and Penny Wong have delivered speeches maintaining support for high immigration and a ‘Big Australia’. We have also seen lobby groups like the Lowy Institute and CEDA deliver reports advocating an increase in the migrant intake and an even Bigger Australia.

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Then there’s the Productivity Commission’s (PC) recent Migrant Intake Australia report, which called for a national population strategy, rather than flying blindly.

In all of this, nowhere have Australian’s views been sought over how big they want Australia to become. For this reason, I am today calling on our politicians to introduce a plebiscite to the Australian people to seek their views about the nation’s future population size, the answers of which will then be used to formulate Australia’s immigration intake to meet said target.

Here is an example of the type of question that should be taken to the Australian people:

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Australia’s population is currently 24 million. Under zero net overseas migration (NOM), it is projected to reach 27 million by 2060.

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By 2060, do you believe Australia’s population should be:

  • 27 million;
  • 30 million;
  • 35 million;
  • 40 million;
  • 45 million?

Obviously, there is room to move on the language and the chart should be updated to show the level of NOM corresponding to the choices, but you get the idea. The important thing is that Australians’ views are sought and that these views are then used to formulate a national population policy.

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About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.