SQM: “dangerous housing bubble” lurking

Louis Christopher, the Managing Director of SQM Research, said: “The housing market is currently at its second most overvalued point on record and now, given a combination of factors including loose monetary policy, strong population growth and booming local economies, prices in Sydney and Melbourne will be rising from this very lofty valuation point.”

SQM Research forecasts an acceleration of dwelling price rises in Sydney and Melbourne with Sydney dwelling prices forecasted to rise 11% to 16% for the 2017 calendar year, while Melbourne is forecasted to rise by 10% to 15%. The capital city average forecast is for dwelling prices to rise 6% to 10%.

The forecasts assume a stable interest rate environment, a stable exchange rate and no further home lending restrictions by APRA. If lending rates are cut again by the RBA, Sydney and Melbourne prices could rise by up to 18% for the year as forecasted by SQM’s “Scenario 2 outlook”.