Australia’s speculator frenzy has gotten a second wind, according to today’s Lending Finance data for September, released by the ABS.
As shown below, the annual value of investor loans in New South Wales (read Sydney) rose for the second consecutive month, with Victoria (read Melbourne) – the second hottest market – also registering another increase. By contrast, investor loans in Western Australia and Queensland continued to retreat:
However, despite the latest increase, rolling annual growth in investor loans has fallen sharply across the board, with Western Australia most deeply in the red, although the tide is turning across most markets:
As at September 2016, investors accounted for a staggering 53.2% of total housing finance commitments (excluding refinancings) in New South Wales (Sydney), up 1% from July but still down sharply from the record 61.7% share posted in June 2015. Victoria’s (read Melbourne’s) share of investor mortgages also rebounded to 44.5% in September, although it was still down from June 2015’s 52.3% peak. The share of investor lending was never as dominant in the other major jurisdictions, nevertheless they are largely in retreat:
Putting the two charts together for New South Wales (Sydney) produces the following:
The rebound in New South Wales’ (Sydney’s) investor demand is shown more closely in the below charts:
The rebound in Victoria (Melbourne) is similar:
Regardless, specufestor spirits are reigniting in the key bubble markets of Sydney and Melbourne. If APRA had any sense it would get ahead of it and tighten its investor speed limits pronto.
