Do-nothing Malcolm talks up hollow “jobs and growth plan”

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By Leith van Onselen

Does nothing, explains nothing, understands nothing, soon to be nothing Malcolm Turnbull gave a waffling sermon last night on his Government’s plan for “Jobs and growth”. From ABC’s 7.30 Report:

MALCOLM TURNBULL: Well, politicians have always got to make sure they’re in touch with their constituencies and in the United States, what you have seen is for many middle income Americans, they’ve seen their incomes either go backwards or stagnate in real terms.

The recovery from the recession that followed the global financial crisis has not resulted in all boats rising …

LEIGH SALES: What about here, though?

MALCOLM TURNBULL: … on the same tide. Well, we have, we understand very clearly the importance of maintaining strong economic growth…

Believe me, at the end of the day, the most important thing for Australians, indeed, for Americans, is to ensure that they have a good job, that their kids can get a good job, that they have a good prospect and you need a strong economy for that and that’s what my government has delivered.

LEIGH SALES: Let’s talk about jobs in the context of this question about whether there is a disconnect. You are talking about jobs there and the jobs you are creating but the fact is they are almost all part-time.

Australians are losing full-time jobs and they’re getting part-time or casual jobs in their place…

And yet when we do hear politicians ever talking about that?

MALCOLM TURNBULL: Well, we talk about employment all the time. I’ve been parodied, satirised for talking about jobs and growth too much.

LEIGH SALES: But are you levelling with people and saying, you are not going to get another full-time job, you are probably going to get a part-time job?

MALCOLM TURNBULL: Well, there is always a mix and people have full-time jobs, they have part-time jobs, some people have several part-time jobs. People come in and out of the full-time workforce.

But clearly we want Australians to have more jobs, more well-paid jobs, and what that requires is a strong economy…

LEIGH SALES: Do you accept my point that more people are getting part-time jobs when they actually want full-time jobs and what are you doing about that?

MALCOLM TURNBULL: Well, what we’re doing about that is ensuring that we have that stronger economic growth.

Leigh, one of the reasons, one of the key reasons that we are proposing and seeking the support of the Senate to reducing company tax is because, if you reduce the tax on business, and, indeed, on unincorporated businesses, if you reduce the tax on business, you increase the return on investment.

If you increase the return on investment, you get more investment. If you get more investment, you get more jobs.

It’s as simple as that and that’s why everything we have done, whether it is the big free trade agreements, whether it is the defence industry plan, whether it is the infrastructure plan, whether it is the business tax cuts – everything is designed to promote more employment and better quality employment in terms of being better paid.

Righto. So Turnbull’s big plan to boost “jobs and growth” is to:

  • Cut company taxes, despite the fact that:
    • most of the benefits would flow offshore;
    • national income would be reduced;
    • the Budget would lose revenue, resulting in tax rises or expenditure cuts eslewhere (lowering jobs and growth); and
    • Treasury’s own modelling showed almost no benefits to jobs and growth.
  • Pursue more free trade agreements, despite:
    • the Productivity Commission raising significant concern about their efficacy and efficiency; and
    • other studies showing they diverted more trade than they created, thus reducing efficiency.
  • Spend tens-of-billions of taxpayer dollars building defence hardware in Australia which would be much cheaper overseas.
  • Encourage the states to undertake spurious asset sales under the Coalition’s ‘asset recycling’ program, despite:
    • Concerns raised by ACCC head Rod Sims; and
    • Concerns raised by the Productivity Commission.
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There’ll be some marginal benefits in that but, let’s face it, a little infrastructure and few subs will not carry the national economy.

No, the Turnbull Government’s real plan for jobs and growth is much more simple. It is to do nothing to disrupt immigration to ensure that house prices and construction remain under upwards pressure. In this, it is in league with the RBA and Treasury, which together planned the housing boom when their endless mining boom imploded unexpectedly. Thus Do-nothing also turns a blind eye to the huge rorting of Australia’s visa system, which is undermining Australian jobs and working conditions. It also means he does nothing to fix the Budget which would alos upset the housing/consumption economy.

Of course, although this plan lifts GDP it only damages “better quality employment in terms of being better paid”, as we are seeing across the nation.

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However, it does enable Do-nothing to claim he’s doing something.

unconventionaleconomist@hotmail.com

About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.