Macro Afternoon

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by Chris Becker

A generally positive start to the week in Asia with gains across most stock markets, except locally as the USD continued to surge against the majors with oil prices lifting.

The Shanghai Composite is up 20 points or nearly two thirds of one percent, building on its bear market rally, currently at 3213 points. The Hang Seng is having a scratch session however, barley moving at 22350 points. It’s still trying to get out of its corrective phase with no signs of the bulls lifting yet.

In Japan, the Nikkei was pushed to another new daily high by the soft Yen, up 07% to over 18000 points. After breaching the 111 handle briefly on Friday night, the USDJPY is now above and holding on to its gains here in a move that continues to have legs:

USDJPYH1
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S&P Futures are up 0.2% heading into the European session with a triple top on the hourly chart probably presaging a breakout later tonight, with no negative economic catalysts in the way:

S&P.fsH1

Meanwhile, the ASX200 is the laggard in the region, down 8 points to 5351 points as banks and healthcare stocks dragged the bourse down as miners and oil players lifted. Resistance overhead at 5400 points is still too high a target for mind though unless the Aussie dollar sells off further.

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The Aussie continues to stumble down the steps, falling to just above the 73 handle against the USD. It remains steady against Yen, but this is setting up for another re-weighting of interest rate risk with 70 cents or even lower on the cards:

AUDUSDH1

Oil is shooting higher on more rumor of supply cut news from OPEC, with the WTI marker breaching hourly support at $46.30 and up to $47USD per barrel, trying to build on last weeks gains:

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WTI.fsH1

The data calendar starts the week slowly as I previewed in Trading Week this morning, with only a speech by Mario Draghi to listen in on later tonight in the European Parliament.