The Housing Industry Association (HIA) has released its latest National Outlook, which forecasts a 3% decline in dwelling starts this financial year, from 229,820 to 222,700, with a further 18.5% fall forecast for 2017-18, before another 5% decline in 2018-19; with apartments to bear the brunt of the slowdown (see next chart).
According to the HIA:
“Multi-unit building, especially apartments in the Eastern States, has driven much of the growth in this cycle and is also forecast to lead the slowdown in new activity over the next couple of years. From their peak of 117,000 in this calendar year multi-unit commencements are expected to fall by over 40 per cent by 2018/19.
“A softer landing is forecast for detached homes with 103,000 starts predicted for 2018/19, down 9 per cent on the peak this year.
“The forecast falls in new activity will not be uniform across the country; Western Australia and South Australia started their down-cycle well in advance of other states…
“Actual building activity on the ground will not decline in the same way as new starts due to the substantial volume of work under construction that will not be completed until 2018 and into 2019.
