As predicted, Chinese house prices stalled in October as prudential measures hit eastern bubble cities, from the NBS:
First, the 10 months there have been half of first- and second-tier cities are hot . 7 Rates were down 1 Ge remaining flat or down
To better reflect the dynamic changes in the real estate market, the National Bureau of Statistics released last month, following the 15 first-tier and second-tier cities focus 10 after the first half of January Rate changes, but also on the city 10 Rate changes were statistically half of February. The results show that the hot line and second-tier cities to local conditions, because of the city since the measures and policies to implement control policies, price movements significantly stabilized. With 10 first half of January than 10 half moon new commercial housing price in addition to Shenzhen and Chengdu 2 cities continue to decline, the Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, Xiamen and Zhengzhou 5 cities can be turned down by the liter, a drop in 0.1 Zhi 0.4 between points; Guangzhou new commercial housing prices were flat; rest . 7 cities new commercial housing prices fall further than the increase in the rate of decline 0.4 Zhi 3.3 between points.
Second, 10 Yuefen 70 cities in a second-tier cities real estate market is clearly cooling, third-tier cities more stable
10 months, 70 cities, the first-tier cities and second-tier cities real estate market is clearly cooling, home prices falling rapidly than gains. Preliminary estimates, 10 months a second-tier cities in new commercial housing price rose respectively 0.5% and 1.3% , respectively, compared with 9 down month 2.8 and 1.0 percentage points; second-hand house prices rose respectively by 0.6% and 0.8% , respectively, compared with 9 down month 2.9 and 1.1 This percentage points. Third-tier cities housing prices relatively stable. 10 months and third tier cities new commercial housing prices rose 0.9% , compared with 9 down month 0.3 percentage points; second-hand house prices rose 0.5% , compared with 9 down month 0.3 percentage points. In addition, the first-tier cities new commercial residential and secondary residential prices rose also fall.
Looks like most of the major big eastern cities saw prices falls on the month. The broader month average price rise pulled back to 0.5% and year on year is at 12.3% but will shortly begin to pull back as well:
Seven cities now have falling price year on year:
And all indexes will head south over the coming months:
Not disastrous by any means but material slowing underway. Now we will see what Chinese authorities are made of.
Coking futures turned down -3% and iron ore -1% on the news. Not enough. This is going to pop the bulk bubble over the next quarter or so.
