Do-nothing Malcolm is doomed. It’s not that he’s offensive, nor that he’s made mistakes like his predecessor. It’s just that he’s nothing at all in a time when much is needed. The polity is watching as its standards of living fall for an unprecedented period and they want him to do something. Possibly even anything. The truth is as clear as day in this chart showing the outcome of the post-GFC period is now materially worse for Aussie households than it is for the US households who were at the centre of the Great Recession:
This chart is one of pure collective anger and it is looking for an outlet. It wants action.
Yet Do-nothing Malcolm has instead based his entire platform on the complete opposite. Three forces appear to have combined to paralyse his administration. The first is that after Tony Abbott’s botched attempt to fix the Budget in 2014, advice from the bureaucracy on policy is keep your head down. Everyone in Canberra now knows in their guts that you can’t take back income from households because they are fully embedded in the mortgage and house price economy. To do so just threatens consumption in a kind of reverse Ricardian equivalence:
The second force driving Do-nothing Malcolm is that Canberra is once again convinced that China has rescued it and that the terms of trade crash is over:
That means income will repair itself and everything will be OK. But it isn’t true. The ToT has much further to fall. It isn’t going to magically plateau at its highest level in history before this boom. The current commodities pulse is best compared with the Chinese stimulus of 2013/14 and it too will pass before long.
The third driver appears to be Malcolm’s own failed history as a leader in which he was rolled in Opposition because he didn’t consult enough with colleagues. Because his colleagues today are a mix of pure real estate rent-seeking and ideology that don’t want change under any circumstances that leaves him with nothing to do.
And so, Do-nothing Malcolm’s polls are sinking. It’s begun with his performance as PM but it will drag down his entire government as economic conditions remain tough. He is creating a power vacuum just as Tony Abbott, Kevin Rudd and Julia Gillard did before him, and soon enough someone else is going to fill it.
Richo can see it at The Australian:
But we have come to learn that the Prime Minister is yet another occupant of our top job who is not much more than a dud. He scraped in with a one-seat majority after a disastrous election campaign. The realisation that his achievements in government are extremely limited came as a bitter disappointment to many. The rhetoric wasn’t matched by action. The disappointment people feel in Turnbull is as palpable as it is widespread.
There are three Liberal premiers left and two of them are in clear and present danger. While Will Hodgman plods along safely in Tasmania, the West Australian and NSW premiers are in a world of pain. Western Australia’s Colin Barnett just went through a leadership challenge and faces an election in March. Don’t bet your mortgage on his survival.
Mike Baird’s popularity has disappeared almost without trace since he moved to close the greyhound industry in NSW. The damage is piling up, the Liberals are reeling from these setbacks and it is becoming clearer that Turnbull is unable to win another election.
Labor is attempting to build its primary vote under Bill Shorten as well as its two-party preferred. The gains are not substantial but they are critical if Labor is to win government.
The Greens are pretty static. Their vote refuses to increase and in some states their internal factional wars are nastier than those of the major parties.
The big success in Australian politics is Pauline Hanson. I disregard Nick Xenophon because his vote, impressive though it may be, is largely restricted to his home state of South Australia.
Hanson’s YouTube messages expressing her concerns about Islam, foreigners buying our land and a few of her other fears resonate with millions of Australians who believe they are being left behind. The senator is talking confidently about running candidates in Queensland and Western Australia.
I have no doubt her vote will be impressive, particularly in Queensland where, outside of the southeast corner, her message resonates with many ordinary punters. Her preferences can be crucial, too. The greatest irony in the federal election was Labor taking the Townsville seat of Herbert, largely on the back of Hanson preferences.
The major parties ignore her at their peril. In the tight contests in Queensland and Western Australia her preferences could well be crucial in determining who wins.
Labor in particular should think long and hard about how to handle the Hanson phenomenon. Refusing to speak to her, either about legislation before the Senate or about preference allocation, will prove dangerous. For Queensland Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk’s sake, some dialogue with Hanson would be sensible. It is no good railing against her views if millions of Australians agree with her.
It is worth remembering that Hanson is awash with commonwealth electoral cash. In whichever election comes next she will run a well-resourced, professional campaign.
Pauline Hanson must not be allowed to become Australia’s Donald Trump. She will fracture Australian multi-culturalism, intensify lone wolf terrorism threats, deepen the economic war on youth, spray Australia with racist paint for all the world to see, and open the way for more destructive demagoguery as politically savvy operators use her as an outrider.
Hanson policies must be out-flanked. Australia’s very aggressive immigration program is no longer appropriate for our economic circumstances and should be cut back to historic norms. Policy must turn its mind to improving the lot of the existing population by rebuilding services for the enormous influx of people we have already seen. An explicit narrative of nation-building, of repaired competitiveness and reform, of balanced external relationships, of multi-cultural Australianism with a common purpose of rising living standards regardless of creed or colour is needed.
Choking the nation’s cities with more people so that a few pollies can enjoy fattening property portfolios only risks social rupture and repeat political crisis.
