Macro Afternoon

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by Chris Becker

Another mixed start for Asian stocks on Monday with the usual gaps up and down absorbing the Friday night and weekend economic events and central banker talk across currencies and in particular bond markets. The

The Shanghai Composite fell nearly 1% after the long lunch break to 3038 points in lockstep with the Hang Seng, down 0.8% to just above the 23000 point support level, threatening a full breakdown on the daily chart:

HSI.fsDaily
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In Japan, the Nikkei rallied 0.3% even as Yen strengthened, trying to get back above 17000 points again. Its still all about changing levels of support and resistance within Asian markets, a sign of latent volatility that is building.

Yen strengthened slightly, with USDJPY gapping down to the 104 handle before recovering and poised to breakout here as USD regains strength on Yellen’s comments over the weekend:

USDJPYH4
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For the ASX200, Monday was not a good start the week, cracking below 5400 points with a near 1% drop. Crown Casinos was off 14% due to a mass arrest of its employees, possibly on corruption charges in China. But it wasn’t all gambling, but another addiction that sent markets down with most property and AREIT stocks off 2-4%, including Sydney Airport, Lend Lease and Mirvac as other ASX50 stocks were stable. The AREIT index (XPJ) looks like breaking down into a full bear market here:

$xpj_ax_price_daily_and_commodity_channel_index___daily___40_periods.20apr16_to_22oct16

The Aussie dollar fell at the open, retracing most of its Friday night rally and is stuck right on the 76 handle going into the London session. I’m watching the low moving average at 75.80 level to be tested in the coming hours:

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The data calendar tonight will include the final EZ CPI print for September, and then industrial production numbers in the US for September as well.

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