Our Q3-CPI forecast at 0.8%qoq/1.3%yoy for headline and 0.5%qoq/1.6%yoy for the average of the RBA core measures.
We expect a relatively strong headline CPI print in Q3, with our forecast at 0.8%qoq following the 0.4%qoq outturn in Q2. If headline CPI prints as we expect, headline CPI would be up 1.3%yoy. Our forecast for the weighted median core inflation measure is at 0.5%qoq, and trimmed mean is at 0.4%qoq – this would leave the average of the RBA core measures at 1.6% over the year.
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David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal.
He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.
