We recently met three Hong Kong/ China watch retailers: Hengdeli, Oriental and Emperor Watch & Jewellery. All three companies commented that current trading remains tough, and there is not expected to be any significant recovery this year. Destocking continues as retailers reduce replenishment rates on weaker brands and adjust inventory price mix. More store closures are also ahead with the only silver lining that there appears to be a little more room for rent reductions in Hong Kong of ~10%-40%.
Recent company commentary has continued to be weak: Swatch reported H1 results on 21st July. Organic sales declined -12.5%, with multi-brand retailers cautious to re-order or cancelling orders. CEO Hayek commented that own retail was better than wholesale and retail in Hong Kong has potentially bottomed out with sales between +10% and -10% depending on the stores. Local Hong Kong retailers, however, do not see the same trends. These results again confirm the difficult market conditions, and follow Richemont reporting April sales -15%.
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David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific's leading geo-politics and economics portal.
He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.
