Late last week and over the weekend, China issued its monthly data drop and it’s clear that the MB thesis of an H2 slowdown is locked-in. Headline numbers slowed with industrial production on a stable trend at 6%, retail sales on a stable trend at 10.2% but fixed asset investment falling sharply to 8.1% year to date growth:
Within fixed asset investment, the structure is changing fast and not for the better. Private investment is collapsing and while public investment has leaped to fill the gap it’s growth rate is now falling sharply as well:
Digging further into growth composition and its importance for commodity prices, growth in new real estate under construction continues to erode after its big H1 spike, down to 13.7% year on year in July from an early year peak of 24%. Still well ahead of last year but now falling materially behind 2014:
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