Australia’s hidden (and growing) labour slack

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From Macquarie Bank:

 We see two issues with the labour force data which suggest potential for volatility if the current complacency is challenged. The first is sample rotation.

 Expectations were primed for shock weakness in the June data, as the super strong October 2015 October cohort rolled out of the survey sample set. There was little fanfare as the sample was replaced with a solid incoming group, and solid gains from continuing sample groups. But there are still two strong samples yet to roll out of the labour force basket, this month and next.

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About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.