by Chris Becker
The latest job advertisement data is out from ANZ and shows a weakening of 0.8% over the month of July, the first fall since April earlier this year. Annual growth as a result fell to 6.9% from 8% even.
Here are the overall charts and texture from ANZ:
“The labour market has lost some momentum so far in 2016, with slower average growth in both employment and job ads seeing the unemployment rate stabilise around 5¾% after declining in the second half of last year from a peak of 6.3%.
More recently, job ads rebounded strongly in May, followed by a modest rise in June, but these increases have been partly unwound by the decline in July.
Given that ads fell sharply in early July, we think this decline may partly reflect the impact of increased uncertainty following the close federal election on 2 July and the shock decision by the UK to leave the European Union on 24 June.
This impact appears to have been short-lived, with job ads picking up over the course of July, and little sustained effect from the increase in uncertainty on business and consumer confidence. For example, the ANZ-Roy Morgan index of consumer sentiment fell about 3% in the weeks after Brexit and the federal election, but recouped almost all of that fall by the end of July.
With surveyed business conditions remaining upbeat and the RBA cutting rates in August, we look for a gradual improvement in hiring intentions over the remainder of the year.”
Not surprisingly, the job picture doesn’t look too good in Western Australia – or is this the rental vacancy chart upside down?
