The Victorian Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning has released a new report, entitled “Victoria in Future 2016: Population and household projections to 2051“, which forecasts huge growth in Victoria’s population to 10.1 million by 2051, comprised as follows:
With Melbourne’s population rising to 8.0 million by 2051 from 5.9 million as at June 2015:
And the lion’s share of population growth projected to come from net overseas migration (NOM), which is expected to ramp-up over time:
NOM has been the strongest driver of population change in Victoria and Australia in recent years, accounting for up to 70 per cent of growth.
In the short term, VIF2016 relies on Commonwealth Government forecasts of arrivals and departures to Australia and allocates a share to Victoria based on recent trends. This results in NOM to Victoria increasing from approximately 57,000 in 2015-16 to 60,000 by 2018-19.
VIF2016 assumes NOM remains between 60,000 and 65,000 per annum over the period to 2030, before increasing in line with the population to a level of approximately 75,000 in 2050-51. NOM therefore accounts for between 52 and 60 per cent of annual population growth over the projection period.
Commenting on the results, Peter Seymour from the Metropolitan Planning Authority claimed that the rabid population projections does not mean that Melbourne’s livability will be reduced:
“I think that Melbourne’s doubled in population since the ’60s and is probably a more liveable city now than it was in the 1960s,” Mr Seymour said.
“Now all we’ve got to do is make sure in the 2050s we’re a more liveable place than we are today.”
Pull the other one, Peter.
In the 55 years from 1960, Victoria’s population increased by 3.1 million from 2,888,290 in 1960 to 5,996,385 as at 2015, representing growth of 56,500 people per year.
Under your department’s projections, Victoria’s population is projected to increase by 4.1 million to 10.1 million people in just 36 years, representing annual growth of 114,000 people per year – roughly double the prior period’s annual intake.
How do you propose that Melbourne accommodate this never-ending flood of people without adversely impacting existing residents’ living standards, Peter?
Following a decade of rampant immigration, housing is already massively unaffordable in Melbourne, roads and public transport are already clogged, and living standards have already been degraded. How do you propose to turn the ship around amid another 36 years of high growth lunacy?
Where’s the plan to cope with this population explosion, and why is it desirable? The case has never been made, which is why Australia desperately needs to have a national discussion about population policy before the situation gets too far out of hand.