Vic Government ramps-up population ponzi projections

By Leith van Onselen

The Victorian Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning has released a new report, entitled Victoria in Future 2016: Population and household projections to 2051, which forecasts huge growth in Victoria’s population to 10.1 million by 2051, comprised as follows:

ScreenHunter_14064 Jul. 17 17.18

With Melbourne’s population rising to 8.0 million by 2051 from 5.9 million as at June 2015:

ScreenHunter_14066 Jul. 17 17.20

And the lion’s share of population growth projected to come from net overseas migration (NOM), which is expected to ramp-up over time:

ScreenHunter_14065 Jul. 17 17.19

NOM has been the strongest driver of population change in Victoria and Australia in recent years, accounting for up to 70 per cent of growth.

In the short term, VIF2016 relies on Commonwealth Government forecasts of arrivals and departures to Australia and allocates a share to Victoria based on recent trends. This results in NOM to Victoria increasing from approximately 57,000 in 2015-16 to 60,000 by 2018-19.

VIF2016 assumes NOM remains between 60,000 and 65,000 per annum over the period to 2030, before increasing in line with the population to a level of approximately 75,000 in 2050-51. NOM therefore accounts for between 52 and 60 per cent of annual population growth over the projection period.

Commenting on the results, Peter Seymour from the Metropolitan Planning Authority claimed that the rabid population projections does not mean that Melbourne’s livability will be reduced:

“I think that Melbourne’s doubled in population since the ’60s and is probably a more liveable city now than it was in the 1960s,” Mr Seymour said.

“Now all we’ve got to do is make sure in the 2050s we’re a more liveable place than we are today.”

Pull the other one, Peter.

In the 55 years from 1960, Victoria’s population increased by 3.1 million from 2,888,290 in 1960 to 5,996,385 as at 2015, representing growth of 56,500 people per year.

Under your department’s projections, Victoria’s population is projected to increase by 4.1 million to 10.1 million people in just 36 years, representing annual growth of 114,000 people per year – roughly double the prior period’s annual intake.

How do you propose that Melbourne accommodate this never-ending flood of people without adversely impacting existing residents’ living standards, Peter?

Following a decade of rampant immigration, housing is already massively unaffordable in Melbourne, roads and public transport are already clogged, and living standards have already been degraded. How do you propose to turn the ship around amid another 36 years of high growth lunacy?

Where’s the plan to cope with this population explosion, and why is it desirable? The case has never been made, which is why Australia desperately needs to have a national discussion about population policy before the situation gets too far out of hand.

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    • That’s where I’d eventually like to settle when I move back to Australia for many reasons, climate change being one of them. The ‘ignorant of certain Australian realities’ new migrants can invest in building a new life on the mainland but I’d prefer not to.

      • Yep, I’m seriously considering Tasmania too. The rest of Australia is too hot and crowded for me. Getting work is the biggest issue.

  1. What would social stability look like in this scenario?

    Another question as an ex Melburnian living o/s, how many people on this website have actually made friends (not work friends but a genuine friendship) with people who have arrived in the past 10 years? I’m kind of curious about the social aspect of recent migration to Australia.

  2. Lets see how those projections look post-burst, mass exodus and stalled rate of immigration.

  3. NOM may be highrer. Every new immigrant can sponsor spouses, children, mother, father and siblings. Certain recently arrived nationalitiesare defraying the cost of their own visa fraud costs by charging up to 40 k in Melbourne or 60k in Sydney for sham fiancees and brides wanting to get into Australia. After two years they divirce and the cycle continues as the pouse then sponsors relatives and another spouse….and on it goes

    • Spouses and children may be but parent migration is really “painful”. Normal application process for parent migration costs around $11K (father+mother) and takes THIRTY years to get a decision. Fast-tracked parent migration takes around 20 months but costs excess of $110K (father+mother). In both cases, for the first 2 years there is no access to Medicare and first 10 years there is no access to Centrelink.

  4. Time to place the population debate up for mainstream discussion. We need to get the facts and let the masses realise the blatant long term destruction that is happening. Better life for your kids? Me not think so. Perhaps Hanson and Katter can ignite the topic in the headlines.