From Cameron Kusher at Core Logic comes an interesting post examining Australian dwelling supply and demand:
If we look at the charts, over 2015 the ratios of population growth to dwelling completions have been recorded at: 2.4 in NSW, 1.9 in Vic, 1.6 in Qld, 1.0 in both SA and WA, 0.8 in Tas, 0.4 in NT and 1.3 in ACT. Based on these measures compared to the average household size it would appear that each state and territory is currently over-building however, there are some short-comings of this analysis as detailed above. It is clear that the ratio compared to the long-run average implies that under-building is still taking place in NSW and Vic while over-building is occurring elsewhere.
Additionally, in most states, there has previously been a substantial undersupply of housing which will continue to overhang any overbuilding for a period of time.
Another thing to consider when looking at this analysis is the type of dwellings that are being constructed. Units are becoming a much more prominent part of dwelling construction. Units are often smaller and therefore likely to house fewer residents than a detached house which also has an impact on these figures.
Although this analysis doesn’t provide a definitive answer to whether too much construction is taking place it is clear that as population growth has slowed and dwelling construction has ramped-up there is now a much better relationship between housing supply and demand. This is highlighted by the fact that in most states and territories there has been a sharp decline in the ratio of population growth to dwelling completions over recent years.
With many new dwellings under construction and even more approved to commence construction, developers should take heed of these figures and exercise caution when looking to undertake new projects. As population growth trends lower and construction ramps up, housing shortages appear to be diminishing quite rapidly.
The only point I will add is that dwelling commencements are running way ahead of completions, suggesting that completions will rocket over the next year or so, thus further alleviating any “shortages” (see next chart).
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness.
Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.
