Coalition 3 seats from outright victory

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The ABC has given another seat to the Coalition, taking its count to 73 versus Labor’s 66:

ScreenHunter_13911 Jul. 07 16.04

There are six seats still in doubt with Labor ahead in five and the Coalition in one:

ScreenHunter_13912 Jul. 07 16.05
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If they fall as predicted above, then the final count will be:

  • Coalition: 74
  • Labor: 71
  • Others: 5

However, the seat of Hindmarsh could go either way. From Naomi Woodley:

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ScreenHunter_13913 Jul. 07 16.11

It still looks to me that it will be a hung parliament, with the Coalition (74 or 75 seats) short of gaining an absolute majority (76) and needing to form a minority government.

Bob Katter has already said he will support the Coalition, which may be enough to get it over the line.

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About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.