From Paul Kelly:
The grander media fantasy is that this is a time for leaders to be themselves, whatever that means. In fact, it is the reverse. It is a time for leaders to try to make incremental gains within a dysfunctional system without destroying themselves. The progressive narrative about Turnbull has won a huge media acceptance: the argument being he has betrayed his inner beliefs on climate change, same-sex marriage and the republic and this is the reason for his fall in the polls. For Labor, it is a golden propaganda. In reality, it doesn’t stand up.
The erosion of Turnbull’s support came when the debate was dominated by the economy, tax, the GST, negative gearing, superannuation, state taxes and the budget. It was his misjudgment on this basket of issues, not the progressive agenda, that triggered the Turnbull disappointment phenomenon. Turnbull was elected Liberal leader last year to win an election. He was not elected Liberal leader to transform policy on climate change, same-sex marriage and the republic.
There is almost no agitation within the Coalition parties for any such pre-election transformation. Turnbull is not being held hostage on these issues by a conservative rump; he merely reflects the overwhelming pre-election sentiment of the partyroom.
Consider the consequences if Turnbull was to indulge himself and implement the progressive agenda. He would provoke a ferocious internal backlash on policy and political grounds, threaten the Coalition with the Nationals, drive a wedge through his own party, destroy the government’s unity, revive leadership tensions and make re-election a virtual impossibility. Here’s the thing: leadership is about responsibility and discipline. This is Turnbull’s only path forward and he knows it.
So, according to Paul, it was Turnbull’s thought bubble rampage that sank him not the betrayal of his long nurtured public policy values. There’s some truth to that. Certainly it was one of the more ridiculous political performances of recent times.
But, Paul is putting cart before horse. The flip-flopping was itself so destructive because it reinforced that Turnbull had neither the method nor the ideals to govern. He was exposed as a hollow man, desperately seeking a ballast of ideas to give himself substance. That he ended settling on the Coalition’s troglodyte agenda may not be a surprise to Paul Kelly but to everyone else it only confirmed that he was just another political hack. And the louder he now proclaims his allegiance to that regime the more he sinks given it’s a personal brand doom loop.
Malcolm Turnbull persuaded the nation he was above politics and dedicated to quality policy, that he was a national not political leader. He turned out to have no values and no idea how to implement good policy and the polity is very resentful at the betrayal.
That Australia’s most eminent conservative commentator cannot see that Malcolm Turnbull committed electoral suicide the moment he imprinted his face on Tony Abbott’s slugoes tells you just how far out of touch the Coalition now is. It’s only hope was to fall in behind a policy-driven, centrist leader. In electing Turnbull to win an election and not a nation it by definition lost it.
