Cross-posted from Mark the Ballot:
Two new polls; two different directions:
- The Fairfax Ipsos poll has Labor ahead on 51 (+2) to the Coalition’s 49 (-2)
- The 7 News ReachTEL poll has the Coalition on 50 (+2) and Labor on 50 (-2)
With the magic of poll aggregation, we can see that the trend continues to move away from the Coalition. The next chart is of the aggregation of the two-party preferred (TPP) vote share that is anchored to the 2013 election result.
Betting markets are going the other way on the odds and probability of a Coalition win.
| House | Coalition Odds ($) | Labor Odds ($) | Coalition Win Probability (%) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-06-03 | Betfair | 1.30 | 3.85 | 74.76 |
| 2016-06-03 | CrownBet | 1.30 | 3.45 | 72.63 |
| 2016-06-03 | Ladbrokes | 1.30 | 3.20 | 71.11 |
| 2016-06-03 | Luxbet | 1.24 | 4.00 | 76.34 |
| 2016-06-03 | Sportsbet | 1.30 | 3.55 | 73.20 |
| 2016-06-03 | TABtouch | 1.25 | 3.65 | 74.49 |
| 2016-06-03 | William Hill | 1.25 | 3.80 | 75.25 |
| % | Fr 27-May | Sa 28-May | Su 29-May | Mo 30-May | Tu 31-May | We 1-Jun | Th 2-Jun | Fr 3-Jun |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair | 73.64 | 73.23 | 73.76 | 72.80 | 73.49 | 74.26 | 74.76 | 74.76 |
| CrownBet | 72.63 | 72.63 | 72.63 | 72.63 | 72.63 | 72.63 | 72.63 | 72.63 |
| Ladbrokes | 69.98 | 71.11 | 71.11 | 71.11 | 70.64 | 71.11 | 71.11 | 71.11 |
| Luxbet | 73.77 | 73.77 | 73.77 | 73.77 | 73.77 | 73.77 | 73.77 | 76.34 |
| Sportsbet | 72.92 | 72.92 | 72.92 | 72.92 | 72.92 | 72.92 | 72.92 | 73.20 |
| TABtouch | 71.43 | 72.94 | 72.94 | 72.94 | 72.94 | 74.49 | 74.49 | 74.49 |
| William Hill | 72.34 | 73.77 | 73.77 | 73.77 | 73.77 | 75.25 | 75.25 | 75.25 |
| Average | 72.39 | 72.91 | 72.99 | 72.85 | 72.88 | 73.49 | 73.56 | 73.97 |
Which charts as follows.
The latest Newspoll, conducted exclusively for The Australian, reveals support for other parties and independents has jumped three points to 15 per cent in the past fortnight to be at the highest level for this group during a formal election campaign in the 31-year history of Newspoll.
The poll, taken from Thursday to yesterday, also shows voters have reset the contest between the government and the opposition at 50-50 in two-party-preferred terms, as Malcolm Turnbull and Bill Shorten have both suffered a fall in their personal standings.
While the two-party-preferred vote sees the first improvement for the Coalition since April — from 49 per cent to 50 per cent — the government’s primary vote has dropped one point to 40 per cent, which is the lowest level since the Prime Minister replaced Tony Abbott as leader almost 10 months ago.
