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The Nikkei finally rebounded, but it was only 1% on short covering after a shocking week as Yen strengthened against everything, sending the domestic bourse almost down to the February lows. The 14400 points are remains my target here, with the bounce off the rising weekly trendline (lower black line) is one to watch up to 16300 points in the short term:

The ASX200 also stopped its freefall decline, but not convincingly as a small area of support at 5150 points is firming, but daily price ranges remain below the 200 day moving average. SPI futures are pointing to a small bounce this morning on oversold reversion, but being long here might be too risky going into Brexit:

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On to Europe, where short covering was the name of the game after Thursday’s bullish engulfing candles on most continental bourses followed through with a positive result in cash sessions that was held onto in futures trading. The German DAX closed up nearly 1% and tested resistance at 9700 points but could not rise any further. I still remain sceptical about this bounce, which smells like a dead cat:

US stocks followed the positive European lead until a reversal late in the session pushed the S&P500 down 0.3% at the final bell. ATR support was breached again with futures pushing the daily low lower as well, as I continue to believe a move down to 2030 points or so is on the cards here:

On to currencies, where Pound Sterling and Euro have surged back following the suspension of the Brexit for/against campaign with the latter gapping up this morning to the 1.13 handle. The daily lower trendline channel remains intact and I’m targeting a mid week level just above the 1.14 handle and then possibly up to 1.15 if the “No” campaign continues to falter:

Yen remains in a solid daily uptrend channel as the Bank of Japan held fire last week, sending the USDJPY to the 103 handle. This is a wide channel and USDJPY remains heavily oversold so a bounce up to 109 in the medium term cannot be discounted, but the longer term trend is quite clear here:

The Aussie dollar remains in an uptrend against the USD but its nothing to get to excited about, although daily momentum has now switched to positive and it looks like 75 cents will be the target later this week. Support remains firm at 73.30, so watch that daily uptrend line:

Oil rebounded on the Iranian supply speculation but more sore on the weakening USD with WTI lifting nearly 4% back to just below $49USD per barrel. We’ve now seen a false break of the daily uptrend line and as I said last week there is very firm support at $40USD per barrel but resistance at $50 overhead is the one to watch as volatility will increase going into this weekend:

After a failed challenge on Thursday, gold again tried to zoom above its 2015 high at $1304USD per ounce but fell short to close just below $1300 level. Friday’s candle was a mirror of Thursdays, being a bullish engulfing one and we should see another attempt to climb above $1300 again today and this week:

The data calendar starts the week slowly with the Japanese June trade balance the only release of note in Asia, while Europe and the US remains quiet with only third tier stuff.

Macro Morning