From Sinofax:
It had always been Malcolm Turnbull’s triple-gamble: to drag the country through an overly long double dissolution election in the middle of winter.
Worse, it could unleash more political intrigue in Canberra
He would have been told that drawn-out campaigns can seriously strain voter loyalties and warned that people get grumpier in foul weather.
Yet even with these negatives taken into account, there is a sense that the outcome in 2016 has never been in that much doubt – that a Turnbull win was the most likely result, almost pre-ordained.
In short, there just isn’t the broad community hunger for a change of government. Nor the anger. Voters are not waiting on their verandahs with baseball bats for Turnbull or even the Coalition. Such hinge-point elections do come along – think 1972, 1975, 1983, 1996, 2007 and 2013 – but this is not one of them.
Betting markets confirm this with Labor drifting towards $5, and so too a welter of public polling.
…Whether this means Labor’s impressive run has peaked ahead of polling day cannot be known yet, but that’s what smart people in both camps suspect.
Remember, the ALP is chasing a steepish 4.4 per cent swing to snaffle the 21 seats it needs for 76. That’s near enough to 51 per cent. Right now, it looks to be under 50 – even though in places it will be considerably higher.
I’m inclined to agree. Although the Coalition’s only policy – the corporate tax cut – is a dud, it’s not going to get up anyway. Labor’s policy matrix is superior but that has not come across very well. As it has stumbled over its costings it has turned defensive rather than double down on attacking the Government’s conspicuously empty policy cupboard.
The day-to-day grind of election trivia makes it all seem meaningless, and ennui favours the government.
The main thing that has changed is that the Coalition has shut down its negative gearing fear campaign which was dramatically lifting Labor by destroying Turnbull’s and the Office of the PM’s credibility.
So long as Turnbull stays away from that rubbish he’ll probably drift home. It is no more than he deserves given what is coming.
