Can Labor capture the grey vote?

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By Leith van Onselen

If there’s one stereotype for voters in Australia it is that younger Aussies tend to vote for Labor and the Greens, whereas older voters tend to flock towards the more conservative Coalition.

On face value, this stereotype should cause consternation for Labor, since the share of older voters is growing as Australia’s population ages.

Indeed, according to analysis published last week, the proportion of voters aged 65 or over has increased from 18.6% at the 2007 Federal Election to 22.0% currently, with the share of voters aged 18 to 24 shrinking from 11.2% in 2007 to 10.6% currently.

So on face value, Labor looks like it is facing an uphill battle.

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However, this stereotype of Labor representing the young and the Coalition representing the old looks like it might be failing this election, with a new survey from seniors lobby group, Council of the Aging (COA), showing that health care has become by far the most pressing issue for older Australians, easily eclipsing the economy, which was the most important issue last election.

The below chart from Peter Martin summarises the situation:

ScreenHunter_13468 Jun. 14 08.30
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According to Martin:

Asked which was the best party to manage healthcare, 36 per cent nominated Labor and only 14 per cent the Coalition. Eight per cent nominated the Greens…

Labor was also regarded as the best party to handle aged care, the best party to handle superannuation, the best party to handle pensions, the best party to handle affordable housing and the best party to handle support for older workers.

If the survey is an accurate reflection of older Australians’ views, then Labor stands a great chance of capturing the ‘grey vote’ at the upcoming election, and given their growing political influence, capturing government as well.

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About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.