Brexit poll of polls in late swing to remain

From What UK thinks come a one point swing to remain on the final day:

Brexit poll of polls
Brexit polls of polls 2

As expected, from Deutsche:


From a highly dubious sample size of two, we can conclude that there is usually a late swing towards the status quo, which makes sense given the burden of proof is really on the “yes” camp so undecided voters will tend to vote “no” at the last minute.

Perhaps now it’s three from three.

Houses and Holes
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    • Thank you – this is all good stuff.
      BUT – does a query such as “What is ‘Brexit’?” – translate into a vote for Brexit?

      • Graham, you are correct that just searching “what is BREXIT” has no real predictive value in itself.

        However, the google landing page is chocked full of all sorts of search queries, a true wealth of data. They have distilled it into REMAIN or LEAVE binary data with percentages in a interactive map based on search terms related to BREXIT.

        Searching could be thought as the equivalent of a “Freudian Slip”, a window into the mind & thoughts of the searcher. That seems to be the great predictive value of the google data, the search term around the BREXIT word.

  1. adelaide_economist

    All of this could have been avoided if Cameron just did an Abbott and blatantly reneged on a key pre-election promise. When will the UK get with the program(me)?

  2. wasabinatorMEMBER

    The cynic in me thinks this whole thing is ultimately manipulated by London’s big end of town. Perfect scenario – show an early Brexit lead and then swing it after the traders all have their positions set for a market reversal when Bremain magically prevails. The elite surely will not allow the non-rich plebeians to have a real say in all this, surely!