Brexit boilover threatens! (updated)

Updated 1.50pm – 1 million votes in front for Leave



New, Brexit on track:


Markets charging the USD and all red:



Old, landslide building:









East Anglia University model gives Bremain zero probability:

03:00 Fifth forecast update

My predictions continue to be much more pessimistic for Remain than the betting markets, though they seem to be in between estimates from Michael Thrasher and JP Morgan.

  • Predicted probability of Britain Remaining: 0
  • (81 of 382 areas reporting.)
  • Predicted vote share for Remain: 47.1 percent.
  • (90% prediction interval: 46.1 to 48.1 percent)



16.8 million wins it.

Latest posts by David Llewellyn-Smith (see all)


  1. GunnamattaMEMBER

    The suspense is killing me….(and I have to drive out the other side of Melbourne this arvo)

    • Its wonderful… didn’t think it would happen. But it has. Bloody political establishment, corrupt.

      Rumour is political establishment will ignore the vote anyway. So we will see.

      • I am with you on that one… Gold up $115 in AUD per OZ and the AUD has dropped from almost .7650 down to .7350 in record time. Hold onto your hats!!!

  2. The big question for mind, as I type this at the beach – no trading this today thank you – is why are the results so close?

    And why male models of course…

    • Easier to fudge at the finishing line if needed……… I’m sitting it out too – for now. But those 1minute charts are so alluring……

      • Movie trivia – Ben Stiller forgot his line, so he just repeated it “why male models” and Mulder lost his shit and ad libbed the rest….

      • haha it’s a great scene. It’s good that serendipity makes it’s way into the final cut. I saw it on TV a month or so ago and David Bowie is in it, I just felt a bit sad that he’s gone. Can’t believe this film was like 2001? Seems like Yesterday I was working in a video store and people were coming in to rent it.

        The video store is still around too! I suspected they were a money laundering front, now I know they must be. You can’t make money in that business.

      • BubbleyMEMBER

        I feel like this when I talk to people about Aussie housing, ng and our debt levels.

        “Are you kidding? I just told you”

    • I am looking forward to the Ewok celebration party!

      Winning a skirmish against a grand modernist edifice warrants some festivities.

  3. HnH, Gunna: This unexpectedly large support for brexit — will it have any influence on the local discourse on immigration in Australia?

    • It will certainly inspire anti-immigration parties in AUS.

      The trouble is there are a few anti-immigration parties in AUS. While Britain has 1 major anti-immigration party that most voters can get behind.

    • BubbleyMEMBER

      I’m expecting to see a “F#ck off we’re full” party at the next election.

  4. adelaide_economist

    If it’s close, then it will actually effectively have been driven Scotland (which is very strongly voting remain). Imagining the outcome being very different had Scotland voted to leave the UK (and presumedly then excluded from this vote).

  5. thefatgeneralMEMBER

    Given the key split emerging between England/Scotland – will be interesting to see how the SNP plays the result (especially if it’s Brexit against Scotlands wishes)

  6. No matter what happens, Brexit or Bremain now that it seems very close doesn’t it mean the UK is going to be in some form of turmoil no matter what?

  7. Looks like the Scottish vote will decide it for Remain.

    Next stop, kicking Scotland out of the UK !

      • C.M.BurnsMEMBER

        AB – my sister flies out to europe tomorrow. I was jealous of her holiday before this, now, gawd, talk about an exciting (and cheap) time to be in europe

    • notsofastMEMBER

      Half a million now. Very significant lead but not a certainty with much of London still to count. I suspect David Cameron would be polishing the dust off his resignation speech about now and considering what he would talk about during his games golf with Alex Salmond.

      The strangest result appears to be that both Scotaland and London will be strange bedfellows with both supporting Remain. But for the Scots a UK Brexit would probably be a near certainty about now.

      • “But for the Scots a UK Brexit would probably be a near certainty about now.”

        There’s already talk in Northern Ireland about whether there should be a vote to stay in the United Kingdom and leave the EU or join with Eire and stay in the EU.

      • Hopefully EU will solve the problem for Northern Ireland and Scotland and dissolves itself in its current form. I will not be surprised if in a few years it will go back to something like the EEC and the UK will rejoin.

      • notsofastMEMBER

        Approaching 1 million now. And I believe the Fat Lady has just sung. Wow, just Wow…

  8. H&H sufficiently distracted by Brexit voting not to issue macro-rant against Australia’s energy policies (aka LNG development) in Daily oil and LNG price update today?

  9. GunnamattaMEMBER

    Frankly I haven’t really cared all that much for or against the idea of Brexit and I’ve spent most of a lifetime bagging the Poms, for one reason or another.

    But as I sit here with the Brexit vote still up for grabs I can’t help but feel a fair bit of admiration for them. I think they have more guts than we do.

    They have had nothing but global leaders, their own political leaders, their business leaders and every other economist on the planet telling them for months that voting for Brexit was voting for the diminution of their circumstances, their quality of life, the certainty they will have an economic downturn, and that the UK itself would be smaller and less influential in the world if it voted for Brexit.

    Yet here we are with the vote well underway and it would appear that a very sizeable portion of the population feel that this is not a disincentive for voting Brexit. You have to wonder why – but then again we probably all know.

    The reason I think they have more guts than us is that they have taken on their own elites and told them to get stuffed. Those elites have been presenting them with a range of options which never provided real choice, and never addressed the everyday concerns of the average UK resident. The Brexit voters have told them that they will take the economic downturn and the smallness, if they can have control of their own destiny. If they can be responsible for their own decisions and not have an unelected elite somewhere else make some of those decisions for them. They are also sending a message to their own elites –

    ‘You are either of us, and with us, or you are nothing. And if you are going to be the frontmen for elites elsewhere, then you need to be accountable to us in the end.’

    The lessons for Australian politics (and I do think this could have some interesting effects next week) are that we have a body politic which ultimately does not address issues which we see and experience everyday………..

    They have a political elite which cannot bring itself to genuinely address the concerns of people openly and unambiguously, and is beholden to interests who are dubious, often unexplained and unacknowledged to the electorate.

    They have a business elite (as we do) which pays less tax, and has wrapped a political ideology around that, which controls the day to day ability of the state to provide for its people.

    They have a press (the communications channel between the elites and the punterariat) which although far more diverse than ours still runs long on being a one way exhortation vehicle for the elites.

    They are exhorted with bullshit about their economy when the economy experienced by people on the street is genuinely hard.

    They have a housing bubble which those with access to debt have gained traction on, which is now holding the real economy of the nation to ransom, and a financialised economy which sucks the life out of the real economy rather than underpins it.

    They have a financial system which is ‘too big to fail’ which they have had to bail out within living memory.

    They have laws which have become the curtain behind which money laundering despots from elsewhere come to hide and a government which presents this as a good thing.

    They have been signed up to a range of treaties which are presented to the public as the foundation of prosperity but which have been widely seen as the basis for undercutting jobs and employment conditions and product standards.

    They have had their concerns about immigration levels met by their political, corporate, and administrative elites with a plethora of half-truths, speciousness, lies and outright refusal to acknowledge.

    I bet we have a raft of ‘the Brexit vote has no effect on Australia and bears no relationship to the experiences of Australians’ this week.

    But I also reckon both the Torynuffs and the ALParatchiks would be shitting themselves.

    Australians, vote for anyone but the LNP or the ALP – until they have the decency and the balls to address the concerns you think are important, and stop feeding you bullshit! ……..Those Poms have a real life lesson for us. Do we have the cojones to tell our elites to get stuffed?

    and just to help get everyone in the mood

    Mr S Vicious – My Way

    • C.M.BurnsMEMBER

      a really interesting interview on the bbc at the moment with young people and talking about the younger vote. british young people were incredibly engaged with the issues and were actively engaged by and engaged with the leave and remain ‘camps’

    • And if you do feel compelled to vote LNP in the lower house out of habit or affiliation, for f**ks sake, don’t give them the Senate. Anyone else in the Senate but the LNP.

    • And how long before the populace of this country spurns our own elite’s engineering of a Chinese takeover ? Very soon, I hope. Because it is reaching a tipping point.

      • Green We don’t actually give a RA who takes us over as long as we get the wherewithall to continue on our corrupt over-spending consuming ways!
        Oh…and house prices go up!

    • notsofastMEMBER

      I agree. Australia needs a vote to either LEAVE the Liberal and Labor Parties or REMAIN with the Liberal and Labor Parties.

      I will be voting LEAVE.

    • FiftiesFibroShack

      I think that just about does it, Gunna.

      The plutocracy cloaked in a faux democracy seems spent. Bernie Sanders, Trump, and now Brexit, all seem to indicate the status quo isn’t going to cut it for much longer.

  10. Remain are edging back slightly.
    Expect a late swing of votes to the status quo as usual.

  11. bolstroodMEMBER

    Will this lead UK to bring back the Empire?
    Can we expect Gumboot off Sydney heads?
    Will we sell the Brits more butter?
    …and what about the last rugby test? Go long wallabies

  12. Now we can start exporting stuff to the UK again!

    We will take some fresh kegs of decent bitter.

    Looking forward to my new Commonwealth Passport with access to the fast queue at Heathrow!

    Especially if those bitchy Brussel Sprouts get their claws out and deny the UK access to EU markets.

    Sydney the perfect place for a garp yar!

    Exit also has the Bill Mitchell seal of approval

    Can’t argue with that! 😉

  13. If the euro is getting pummelled that is great news for me…
    I have a few expensive transactions to make in the next
    few days….

    Great news that the UK is looking likely to exit….

  14. – — if only it’s true & they do leave – please yehaaaaaaaaaaaa !
    Poms will not be stupid after all AND we get to see that absolutely horrible Cameron get his comeuppance –

  15. Leave is pretty much certain now. Now it’s all about if the politicians will act on it and if so, how long would it take.

  16. You Just Gatta read this – – – Excellent stuff
    DAILY MAIL COMMENT: If you believe in Britain, vote Leave. Lies, greedy elites and a divided, dying Europe – why we could have a great future outside a broken EU ( Published 22/6/16 )
    Throughout this long and often acrimonious referendum campaign, the most striking fact about the Remainers is that they have failed to articulate a single positive reason for staying in the EU.

    Instead, they have subjected voters to a barrage of scaremongering, with the aid of a once proudly independent Civil Service, pinning all their hopes on persuading the British people that the dangers of withdrawing from Brussels outweigh the many drawbacks of belonging to it.

    In doing so, they have had to seek the support of the likes of Jeremy Corbyn, Ed Miliband, Gordon Brown and Tony Blair — from the very party voters rightly rejected at the last election on the grounds that they couldn’t be trusted.

      • @UM – – If you’re gonna post a link make sure it works !

        Whoops, something broke !

      • My bad. Choice quote (link is now fixed)

        Fascism, by contrast, was a new invention created afresh for the era
        of mass politics. It sought to appeal mainly to the emotions by the use
        of ritual, carefully stage-managed ceremonies, and intensely charged
        rhetoric. The role programs and doctrine play in it is, on closer inspection,
        fundamentally unlike the role they play in conservatism, liberalism,
        and socialism. Fascism does not rest explicitly upon an elaborated
        philosophical system, but rather upon popular feelings about master
        races, their unjust lot, and their rightful predominance over inferior peoples.

      • 331 pages — holy bat man ! — good on you if you read it all ( and retained ) 🙂

      • Ha. I read it when it was first published and had filed it under “that will never happen again” but the general confrontational nature of modern public discourse has suddenly made it all too real a possibility. It took a good 20 years to foment properly the first time around before mass communication was instantaneous. Given it only took a year to take a lunatic fringe idea like Brexit and make it a reality is truly frightening – in that the population is clearly upset and their would-be leaders are so morally bankrupt they are happy to take advantage.

  17. I am of the opinion that –> “In an effective Demoncracy, people always vote for things that are not in their best interest”. aka you can have all the excitement you want until the counting finishes. At the end it is Bremain, I can bet the house I live in.

    • C.M.BurnsMEMBER

      consider the major theme of the ‘remain’ camp was that remaining was in your self interest / leaving will be financial disaster for eternity; that seems to back up the voting pattern

      the majority of people do seem to have voted against their own (financial) interest by voting to leave.

      • CM Burms,
        “Leave” = short term pain for long term gain
        “Remain” = no gain, just pain

        It will be a close call with “Remain” winning aka majority of plebs have voted against their interest!

      • C.M.BurnsMEMBER

        are you watching the live polling results (on bbc or elsewhere) ?

        leave is 500K in front, currently has 11.3 million votes. has maintained a 300k-500k buffer since the 6 million votes counted stage.

    • “At the end it is Bremain, I can bet the house I live in.”

      You can get odds of more than 20-1 at the moment if you actually do believe that. At least for the vote, not the actual exit. I think it’s still probably 50/50 as to whether the vote is ignored by politicians.

    • I don’t know what you are basing your predictions on but leave is nearly 1 million votes ahead now. Unless you are assuming that the UK Parliament will vote Brexit down in defiance of the public, the UK will be out of EU in about 2 years time.

  18. Gold boiling over — as I type this at 11.11 WST Gold US$1301.70 — – –
    AND A$1761 ! — UP A$ 110 from yesterday. Gold Rules 🙂

    Thanks Poms !

  19. This is the United Deep States’ worst geopolitical nightmare IF it spreads to other European countries.

    • Let’s hope it does. It is called democracy! The pussified Germans could learns something from this new found British vigour. Not over yet, but it looks likely

    • Right?!! My eyes are glued to the currency screen in my office.. the yen is on fire right now.

  20. moderate mouse

    Little Englanders having a collective brain fart cos they want to be a Great Empire again….LOL what a laugh! It’s over you bunch of irrelevant tossers!

    Can we get their fucking horrible flag off of ours once and for all now…seriously, what an embarrassment.

    • Sounds like you have become rather unhinged there MM

      Go and have a bex and a lie down……….

      The rest of us will be celebrating this great event !

      Being a dual national I am taking more pride these days celebrating my ‘pommyness’

      Ha ha ha ha !

      • moderate mouse

        You’re a brave soul sticking your head up around these parts….apparently you migrants are filling up all our schools and hospitals! Oh wait, don’t worry, you don’t look Asian enough. We don’t worry about migrants who look like us around here…’s the Asians that bother us. Not white enough.

    • And can we also remove references to Mrs Windsor and her family from our constitution?

      Mr Cameron should have learned from John Howard how to rig these things.

      State the referendum question in such a way that the yes vote can’t get up. Mr Howard did it for our Republic referendum, surely Mr Cameron could have done the same to brexit?

    • Mate….born and bred here right in Canberra of all places !

      Just had the common sense to use my fathers birthright to obtain UK Citizenship, but spent 12 years living, working and breathing over there in the UK.

      And do not worry, my sole offspring is not cluttering up our system, she was born in the UK whilst I was working over there and she just took off 2 weeks ago for a new life in the born again UK. no opportunities for her here in the land of not so plenty.

      Bunch of tossers… that wrong.

      It is us stupid Aussies who are the total tossers, so dumb we can no longer think for ourselves..

      Three big cheers for those working class POMS !

  21. Gold up 7% in AUD!! Going to hit all time high price record. This is fascinating!

    Edit: 8.23%!!! $1799/oz

  22. Of course if this plays out Mr Turnbull is gone a million, we will catch the infection and play along.

    • That is the only positive outcome for Straya, Shorten has just been handed a get out of jail card.

    • Hi Migs, I was meaning to ask you something regarding hedge funds.. do you have much insights into that sector here in Aus?

    • Its been obvious Brexit would win for hours. Question is, short sharp panic or long term implications?

      • notsofastMEMBER

        Both. Short term panic and Long term implications.

        Where this is going to end up for the UK and for Europe and indeed the world, no body knows or can accurately predict.

        Anything more than what I have predicted in another post (Cameron to resign and fresh elections with a new Tory Leader to be called) I think is crystal ball gazing.

        Markets hate uncertainty but that is what the people of the UK have voted for…

  23. HnH, could you update that Markets Changing table?? and other websites are down!!!

  24. notsofastMEMBER

    David Cameron must resign and fresh UK elections called to find the new leader(s) to carry the result of this this very close Referendum forward.

    David Cameron needs to be congratulated for having the bravery to make this Referendum possible. It may be the result that eventually saves Europe.

    • David Cameron needs hanging from a lamp post –not congratulations. He’s an A%%hole didn’t you know?

    • I believe the only reason he got the referendum up was probably because he really thought that the remain camp will surely win! He will be ousted out!

      • notsofastMEMBER

        The Uk held a referendum on joining the EEC in 1975. I think at some point it was a no brainier, given its history of democracy, that the UK was going to have a Referendum on its membership in the EU. David Cameron must resign because the Westminister system of government requires that Politicians stake their political careers on key questions and back their political lives on their positions. David Cameron new that the EU needed change but he could not get it to change enough to the satisfaction of the people of the UK and for this he must resign from the office of PM and as leader of his party. The only condition he should put on his resignation is that fresh elections are called as soon as practicable.

      • While Mr Cameron might choose to leave, there’s no actual requirement for him to resign.

        If he accepts the outcome and goes with it, it’s just a vote he didn’t win. He only has to resign if his party loses power, his party dumps him, or there’s a vote of no confidence passed in the Commons.

        Having said that, I’m sure that the Boris will be angling for the job.

    • notsofastMEMBER

      Leave the UK maybe in time. But joining the EU, I don’t think even the Scots would be that crazy.

      There are some big difference between the Scottish Leave The UK Referendum and the EU Referendum for the UK. In the Scotish/UK Referendum the Politicians in London took the vote very seriously and made significant and early concessions to Scotland. Scotland and indeed other parts of the UK are now significantly heading down a path of devolution. For example Scotland can now issue their own Bonds and their are talks about Scotland having greater control over their budget and over immigration and other sensitive issues. The UK/EU Referendum on the other hand was not taken seriously by Brussels and the Autocrats in the EU. Any concessions made to the UK were made late, were minimised and were not clearly communicated by the EU.

      This Referendum is about EU failings not necessarily about the UKs failure. Having said this, Cameron must take political responsibility for the result, resign and leave politics as soon as smooth transfer of political power can be arranged.

  25. wasabinatorMEMBER

    Not sure if related but i have real estate agents ringing my phone like mad trying to make sure I’ll be attending auctions tomorrow, haha

  26. notsofastMEMBER

    Some predictions:

    Within two weeks (or maybe a little longer):

    UK Pound to parity

    with the NZ dollar.

    Au dollar will be next to worthless after the ballot box rebellion on July 2nd…