Brexit boilover threatens! (updated)

David Llewellyn-Smith

Friday 24 June 2016

Updated 1.50pm – 1 million votes in front for Leave

New, Brexit on track:

Markets charging the USD and all red:

Old, landslide building:

Old:

East Anglia University model gives Bremain zero probability:

03:00 Fifth forecast update

My predictions continue to be much more pessimistic for Remain than the betting markets, though they seem to be in between estimates from Michael Thrasher and JP Morgan.

Predicted probability of Britain Remaining: 0

(81 of 382 areas reporting.)

Predicted vote share for Remain: 47.1 percent.

(90% prediction interval: 46.1 to 48.1 percent)

Old:

16.8 million wins it.

About the author

David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific's leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.