Roy Morgan sees Labor landslide

From Roy Morgan:

unnamed

In mid-May ALP support 52.5% (up 1.5%) is now clearly in front of the L-NP 47.5% (down 1.5%) on a two-party preferred basis after the first week of official campaigning following Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull’s decision to call a Double Dissolution Election for Saturday July 2.

This is easily the best result for ALP since Malcolm Turnbull became Prime Minister in September 2015 and if a Federal Election were held now the ALP would win.

Primary support for the L-NP is 36.5% (down 3.5%) with ALP at 33% (up 0.5%). Support for the Greens is up 2% to 15.5%, Nick Xenophon Team (NXT) 5% (up 1%; 19.5% in South Australia), Katter’s Australian Party is 0.5% (down 0.5%), Palmer United Party is 0% (unchanged) and Independents/ Others are at 9.5% (up 0.5%).

The massive vote for minority parties (30.5%) suggests that today they would definitely control the Senate and the Greens and the Nick Xenophon Team (NXT) could control the House of Representatives.

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is up this week to 102 with 41.5% (up 2%) of Australians saying Australia is ‘heading in the right direction’ and 39.5% (down 2%) saying Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

This week’s Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted last weekend, May 14/15, 2016, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 2,318 Australian electors.

Analysis by Gender

Analysis by Gender shows women heavily favouring the ALP and men slightly in favour of the L-NP.  Men: L-NP 51% (down 1%) cf. ALP 49% (up 1%); Women: ALP 56.5% (up 2.5%) cf. L-NP 43.5% (down 2.5%).

Analysis by Age group

Analysis by Age group shows that Turnbull’s biggest problem remains convincing younger voters to support the L-NP. The ALP leads easily with electors under 50: 18-24yr olds (ALP 65.5% cf. L-NP 34.5%), and 25-34yr olds (ALP 67% cf. L-NP 33%) and 35-49yr olds (ALP 54% cf. L-NP 46%). However the L-NP leads the 50-64yr olds (L-NP 51% cf. ALP 49%) and the L-NP leads easily amongst those aged 65+ (L-NP 60.5% cf. ALP 39.5%).

Analysis by States

The L-NP now holds a two-party preferred lead in only one Australian State. The ALP leads in Tasmania: ALP 57.5% cf. L-NP 42.5%, Victoria: ALP 56.5% cf. L-NP 43.5%, Western Australia: ALP 54% cf. L-NP 46%, South Australia: ALP 53% cf. L-NP 47% and New South Wales: ALP 50.5% cf. L-NP 49.5% and the L-NP leads in only Queensland: L-NP 51% cf. ALP 49%.

The Morgan Poll surveys a larger sample (including people who only use a mobile phone) than any other public opinion poll. The Morgan Poll asks Minor Party supporters which way they will vote their preferences. *News Corp’s Newspoll does not measure or reference the PUP or NXT vote!

The Morgan Poll allocated preferences based on how people say they will vote – allocating preferences by how electors voted at the last Federal Election, (as used by News Corp’s Newspoll) shows the ALP (52%) cf. L-NP (48%) for trends see the Morgan Poll historic data table.

And my own chart of first term PMs:

dgrhes

Time for some Shirley Bassey:

Comments

  1. Interesting.
    The swing needed for labor to win is some 20 or so marginal seats in the three main cities outer suburbs.
    Who tend to vote Liberal when things are looking up, and but always vote labour when it looks like they will back on the dole queue.

    Maybe all those unemployed (Roy Morgan says 12%) who were denied education, housing and jobs by the 2.4 million foreign Guestworker’s here on fake visas – maybe they will get to vote for whoever promises a Royal commission into how massive a scale the foreign criminal corruption and fraud actually is in our visa & mitigation programs.

    Maybe that segment – 12% of all Australian voters sold out by successive govts on jobs, housing, welfare, education and cost of living by uncontrolled guestworker fake visa importation – maybe that will swing the polls in who has the best plan to fix it.

    Both parties are very out of touch with it being a big issue.

    President Mal couldn’t even hack a full morning in the fetid third world squalor of the western suburbs.

    On labor, Bill is harmless enough as an union puppet – but also lives in a bubble.
    And Tanya is a liability, she hates the Australia poor (check out her dirty little history with the NRAS where she sold out the Australian homeless where she directed $4 billion into Asian criminal syndicates and her developer mates to commit tax payer fraud and it was used to house fake student visa guestworkers.

    Her reason “poor people can’t pay as much rent’.
    One reason why we have 50,000 homeless in sydney and 140,000 families without suitable housing in NSW despite the 22 year economic boom. Thats Tanya – probably the most repugnant person in Australian politics today

    So a real worry would be the Shorten, Plibersek, Shorten leadership faction chaos that will reign.

    If they dumped Tanya and put up Albanese as as deputy they would have a better chance.

    • Yep 457 and other visa fraud (committed against Australian workers) should be the next big thing after banking finance and governance RC these big jobs require RC so that a non partisan political future for Australia can be created from the ashes.

    • Ronin8317MEMBER

      The ALP is suffering from some kind of identity crisis. On live radio, the employment minister refused to say they’ll protect penalty rates. W.T.F???

      • ALP doesn’t have identity crisis. Long time ago in 80s they became neoliberal party that cares for workers rights as far as that helps win some votes, otherwise their agenda is not much different than Liberal

      • It’s because they can’t. Penalty rates are set by the fair work tribunal, an independent body. Legislating rates (like the Greens want) risks a future LNP government just changing the rate. It’s like trying to guarantee interest rates – neither side can, because ultimately they’re set by the RBA.

    • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

      “Maybe that segment – 12% of all Australian voters sold out by successive govts on jobs, housing, welfare, education and cost of living by uncontrolled guestworker fake visa importation – ”

      Most of that 12% think that “Stopping the boats” is a policy designed to reduce this phenomenon and as such will foolishly continue Voting liberal,…Idiots!

    • They need to vote for Sustainable Australia instead of ALP.

      Anyone that gets paid less than $80k should vote against the LNP.

      Now if the SAP could get a smooth talking leader like Nigel Farage…

      • adelaide_economist

        They toyed with having Dick Smith as leader for a short time – would have done wonders for their profile and electoral prospects. He’s rich enough and well known enough to bring enormous credibility (and media coverage) while being largely impervious to the usual criticisms levelled at any party aiming for sustainability eg must be racist, must be greens, must be fairies at bottom of garden etc.

  2. the best that can happen is to have minority parties controlling both senate and the house effectively preventing big parties to continue total deconstruction of welfare state and complete installation of neoliberal oligarchy. The best government we can have at the moment is an impotent government

    • Stephen Morris

      Or an actual Democracy, like Switzerland (https://www.democracy-international.org/direct-democracy).

      It’s odd that the term “democracy” came to be applied to “elective” government only in the 1790s:

      “The Republicans [“Jeffersonian republicans, not the later Republican Party] contended that the Federalists harboured aristocratic attitudes and that their policies placed too much power in the central government and tended to benefit the affluent at the expense of the common man. Although the Federalists soon branded Jefferson’s followers “Democratic-Republicans,” attempting to link them with the excesses of the French Revolution, the Republicans officially adopted the derisive label in 1798.” (http://www.britannica.com/topic/Democratic-Republican-Party).

      Ten years after ratification of the deliberately non-democratic United States constitution, a political party can be seen appropriating the title “Democratic” safe in the knowledge that there was no real threat of actual democracy (in the historical sense).

      This trick has been used ever since. The German Democratic Republic (the former East Germany) was in fact a police state. Likewise, to this day the brutal North Korean dictatorship chooses to style itself “The Democratic People’s Republic of Korea”.

      At the very least The People should be allowed to decide – directly – the form of government they prefer.

      It is, after all, their country.

      Isn’t it??

      • +1000000

        Good to see you back again. Unfortunately in Australia real democracy can never happen. Only the government and in reality, the executive can initiate referendums in this country. What are the chances any government would put forward a referendum that might have the effect of reducing their power?
        The only other way might be a revolution and an overthrow of the constitution…fat chance on that too 🙁

      • Still at it hey?

        The Netherlands just had its first referendum – on a Treaty with the Ukraine. A huge amount of people stated they weren’t going to vote because they found it hard to grasp the complexities, others uses it to voice their misgivings with the economy/EU/national government etc.

        If political parties only have one or two subject matter experts, how should people with fulltime jobs and families be able to inform themselves properly?

        I don’t disagree with your stance that people should have more influence over government, but I am just not convinced referendums are the correct tool. There is a reason for having full time politicians.

        More influence in the early stages of policy development is a much better way to go about it.

      • Stephen Morris

        Oh Dear! Oh dear! Oh Dear! Where does one even begin? This is why I stopped commenting on Macrobusiness. The dogmatism of elitists embraces ignorance as its main defence against the disconfirmation of belief.

        1. The Netherlands has not had a referendum. The Netherlands has had a non-binding plebiscite. The result will almost certainly be ignored by the establishment politicians, in exactly the same way that New Zealand’s non-enforceable plebiscites are routinely ignored.

        2. As AnonNL acknowledges, the plebiscite was used “to voice their misgivings with the economy/EU/national government etc.” Exactly!! And the reason for that is that there are no other avenues (such as binding initiative and referendum) for The People to express their opposition to the Elite policies which are forced upon them.

        3. AnonNL goes on to argue: “If political parties only have one or two subject matter experts, how should people with fulltime jobs and families be able to inform themselves properly?” If AnonNL bothered to study this subject he/she would know that in a well-designed Democracy, the elected Parliament and political parties continue to fulfil precisely that role! For example, Article 139 of the Swiss Federal Constitution imposes precisely that obligation upon the Parliament. (“The Federal Parliament shall recommend its approval or rejection [of any citizens’ initiative] . If it recommends its rejection, it may submit its own counter-draft.”) In practice, each of the political parties does the same thing. As AnonNL implicitly acknowledges, politicians under the system of purely elective government do not have the time to consider all legislation. They just follow party recommendations. Democracy simply extends that to allow all citizens to participate in the process.

        4. AnonNL argues “There is a reason for having full time politicians.” But this is an obvious straw man, because no-one is suggesting abolishing politicians. What Democracy does is to eliminate the “adverse selection” of aggressively narcissistic, machiavellian (and possibly psychopathic) political agents under the system of purely elective government. (See Buchanan’s famous argument on the auctioning of monopolies here: http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2014/05/politics-in-the-age-of-dr-no/#comment-365416). Democracy seeks to improve elective government, not replace it.

        5. It is far from self-evident that the consensus beliefs of establishment politicians is better than the wisdom of the citizens. One only need look at the unmitigated disaster of the Eurozone. In the only two countries (Denmark and Sweden) where The People were allowed to vote directly upon the issue, they voted against it, notwithstanding that elite politicians and pressure groups – from both sides of politics!! – were campaigning in favour of embracing the looming holocaust. (In Britain, the Blair government didn’t even dare to hold the referendum despite favouring Euro entry because it knew that it would be massively defeated.) Even now, the Danes and Swedes are forced to have their currency pegged to the Euro (denying them the ability to free-float like Britain – or Iceland) because they are not permitted to initiate a change to that elite policy.

        6. Finally, who appointed AnonNL to decide the system of government on behalf of everyone else?!? The argument put above was (and I quote) “At the very least The People should be allowed to decide – directly – the form of government they prefer. It is, after all, their country.”

        Having spent years debating with elitists I am cynical about what will happen next. I hope I will be proved wrong, but . . . .

        . . . . .if AnonNL – having had all of his/her arguments demolished – responds in the typical elitist mode, then he/she will NOT go away and give careful consideration to whether those beliefs are justifiable. In most cases, elitists beliefs are absolutely fixed and can never change. They are “fundamentalist”. If AnonNL responds in the typical elitist mode then will we be subjected to another barrage of illogical and unjustified arguments seeking to prop up the belief system.

        But that invites an obvious question.

        We know from history that whenever The People are allowed to choose their form of government they almost invariably choose Democracy (to the greatest extent made available to them). Moreover, those having Democracy never vote to abolish it, even though it is a simply matter to call a referendum to do so.

        In light of that, AnonNL (or elitists in general) would need to demonstrate some other authority to establish why his/her elitist views should prevail.

        As John Locke famously quipped about the Absolute Monarchists of his day (who offered up similar sorts of argument to those put by AnonNL):

        . . .they ought to show us this Charter from Heaven, and let us see . . .!!

  3. GunnamattaMEMBER

    While enjoying the Shirley Bassey it is worth considering the historical when it comes to PMT. If he he gets hammered here we have a man who has done less with a political career than Bronwyn Bishop or Joe Hockey.

    Elected to Parliament in 2004

    Environment Minister in Torynuff government that manifestly did sweet FA about environment 2005-2007. Paraded as thinking mans crumpet alongside flyblown late Howard cabinet.

    Leader of opposition 2008-2009 until Goodwin Grech inspired meltdown revealed underlying temperament and ability to think through issues concerns. Period involved final disintegration of whatever environmental reform credibility he had ever had.

    Threatened to depart politics after dumping but then opted to resume the adornment/feather duster role (again as thinking mans crumpet) for Testostertone leadership of Torynuffs – said nowt about rampant sexism and bigotry of TestosterTone opposition, then reprised Ministerial adornment role (as thinking persons crumpet alongside flyblown and rancid Torynuff cabinet bereft of ideas).

    Eventually ascends to Torynuff throne upon TestosterTone’s implosion in late 2015 with considerable public goodwill, despite having epically cocked up the NBN brief as communications Minister, largely on role as thinking persons conservative leader (alongside flyblown Torynuffs in cabinet) with exhortation to have inclusive progressive government setting a path for Australia”s economic future.

    Proceeds to turn into quintessential Torynuff fraud as he, as Torynuff leader, walks away from any kind of reform, any kind of inclusion, and any kind of path to Australia’s economic future – and resonates as not just pathological Torynuff loon with solid sense of self entitlement, but one who has suckered the public in by crafting a position in public consciousness as intellectual, reasonable and inclusive in his time in politics (despite failings in terms of delivery) and which the public can no longer trust.

    All achieved in less than 6 months as leader. What a run sheet!

    Less contribution to the political narrative of our age than Jah Jah Binks

    • I am not sure Turnbull cares. He strikes me as though being PM was on some sort of bucket list (see the Eiffel Tower, win a court case, buy Point Piper waterfront, become PM etc.). He just had to do it. Doesn’t really matter what happens while doing it.

      • Maybe that was the original idea but me thinks the power has gone to his head and he kind of likes the idea of staying PM – otherwise why wouldn’t he at least stick to a principle or two rather than pander to the RWNJs?

      • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

        Id hate to give Turnbull more credit than he deserves, but I can’t help but think Labor winning the election on the eve of a potentially huge property crash and first recession in over 30 years is not by design.
        This ex Goldman Sachs could well be playing the long game, for the betterment of his class.
        Even Alan Jones’s 2GB (Right wing boomer radio station for boomer ignoramus’s) seem to be trying (subtlety) to throw the election, this time around.

        A win for labor could turn out to be a multi decade poison chalice.

      • “This ex Goldman Sachs could well be playing the long game, for the betterment of his class.”

        So a man with an ego the size of a planet who is known for looking after himself (and only himself) is going to willingly and deliberately sacrifice power and his national reputation for the betterment of others (even if they are of his class)?

        ROFL.

      • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

        @AB

        Lets not kid ourselves,..there is Fuck All Power in being Prime Minister of Australia.

        Ya cant even get some nobody plebeian killed!
        now the tick is on his bucket list, losing the election would be a relief for this plutocrat. To much hassle and bullshit for his liking now. time to get back to enjoy being a rich bastard.


      • Maybe, just maybe if he achieves enough on that list, Mum will come home.

        If you’re wondering why
        All the love that you long for eludes you
        And people are rude and cruel to you

        You just haven’t earned it yet, baby
        You just haven’t earned it, son
        You must suffer and cry for a longer time

    • Turnbull has sown the seeds of his own destruction.
      He is well on the way to being the first PM booted before ever being publicly elected.

    • Mark HeydonMEMBER

      Any half objective review of the evidence with respect to Turnbull’s ability would lead to the conclusion that he is pretty hopeless. No one in the media seem able to grasp this. They can’t get past the “but look, he wears a leather jacket on Q&A!” level of reporting.

    • @EP

      I don’t believe his ego would let him deliberately lose – much better to win and then resign if he’s sick of the job. He won’t be welcome in too many business or policitical circles after overthrowing Abbott and then leave losing an election.

      I’m sticking with Occam’s Razor….he’s just a really shit politician.

      • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

        He couldnt give a rats arse about his standing in the loon pond, he hates them!
        Read Peters link above, he likes to slow rost his enemies, and as for his ego,.. its is so big, I have no doubt that he now finds the Prim Ministership beneath him.
        Politics are for amatures, hes ready to move in Real power circles again, now hes got the extra entry on his CV.

        From peters link,

        “His language says it all: he talks about “retaliation”, how he is at “war”, how certain fights are only “skirmishes”, a smaller part of the bigger “battle”.”

        The bigger battle is the long term continuation of neoliberalism, he will slyly and arrogantly do his bit, help put labor in just before the crash the rentlessly call for their crucifiction, for “wrecking” the economy.

        To many mistakes are being made to be a coincidence, incompetence alone dose not explain the degree of gaffs being made by the supporters of Conservative politics. They have got the money to buy the best and most professional PR available, but seem to be holding back at attacking a not so long ago usless Shorten.

    • Original John

      I am concerned over the besmirching of the good name of Jah Jah Binks by comparing Turnbott to him. Jah Jah is undoubtedly deeply hurt by this insult and it will be almost impossible to get him to front the cameras for the next Star Wars prequel sequel.

  4. reusachtigeMEMBER

    NOOOOOOO!!!!! Seriously, the last thing youse crashniks want to have happen now is for Labor to be in power as the massive boom in housing kicks in. The Liberals need to be held responsible otherwise it will be things like “The Banking RC” and “changing of negative gearing” that is credited for the big boom coming. Vote Liberal in the Reps and anything but Liberal in the Senate… you just have to!

    • GunnamattaMEMBER

      My tip from inside the ALParatchik side is that there will be less hassling of foreign investors and those immigration taps given an extra tweak should they return to power. RE is set to boom boom boom!

      • Demonstrates that the ALP doesn’t get the predicament we face, unless those extra people generate exports (unlikely) rather than imports (likely) then it will not solve any of the underlying problems.

        Better they lose this election so a total reboot is possible !

      • No worries Gov,

        Boot out Turnbull and then boot out the ALP.

        One term governments until these monkeys get the message.

      • but they can’t force the banks to lend to foreigners. and the banks saw something that really spooked them so they stopped lending to foreigners.
        politicians already allow foreigners to bring stolen cash out of china but they will struggle to continue to do so in the future as china is making it more and more difficult to move money out. on top china can always put pressure on oz by simply rewarding contracts to other countries for exporting various minerals and they can also influence where their tourists go. or they can take more direct approach by sending a list of 500 individuals.. you know the rest..

      • For sure, but will the right foreigners play ball? In the space of the past week I have had two students in Beijing tell me that they both know close friends who have migrated with their families (spouse and child) to Australia in the past 12 months. Both moved to Melbourne because Sydney was too expensive and both have now left Australia (they lasted about 8 months), never to return, and are extremely happy to be back in China again. On family migrated in Oct last year, I told them to hold off on buying a house and they are now extremely happy to be back in Shanghai and not needing to purchase property in Australia.

        These would be migrants were middle class Chinese, the group that has benefited the most from China’s development and that arguably has the most at risk in the process of migration. One family came from Chengdu and had a travel business that had been doing business in Australia for years and apparently they had researched their migration fairly well (but obviously not well enough). They lasted 6 months in Australia. This family pays a LOT of attention to face according to my student (and they’ve just lost a shitload of that by moving back to China), the reason given for moving back to China was that they missed the Chinese lifestyle and did not like the Chinese lifestyle. My student believes that the high cost of living was the real reason for them leaving Australia. The other family had the husband still working in China, his wife had studied in London and they could not believe that Australia was more expensive than London. The reason given for them moving back was that the husband and wife didn’t like the separation, although both had been in Oz. Anyway it sounds like cost of living was a factor there too.

        Both families are middle class, they are not rich Chinese, but in China they do have a comfortable life (own their own apartments in good cities, good professional careers where in the past they have been reliably promoted many times, have two cars per family, can afford two overseas holidays every year etc).

        To be honest, I’ve never understood why middle class Chinese have recently developed such a raging hard-on to migrate to Australia. They actually have a pretty life here (it’s not perfect, nothing is), but they are woefully ill informed of the current reality of the middle class in the west. This however appears to be changing slowly. I expect that getting middle class Asians to migrate to Australia will become more and more difficult in future, and I would not be surprised if more recently arrived middle class migrants go back to their country of origin as things get tougher in Australia. The ALP needs to find migrants who will actually buy our houses, and methinks the poor Asian migrants will understand the prices are way too high.

  5. Rupert. See here.

    You need to fire up the propoganda machine now. Come on, it’s getting serious

    • He is already giving it extra nitro.

      The Australian is already in full defcon panic mode.

      Very entertaining

      • Lolololol look at those headlines!

        Still he could do a lot better. Nothing beats dressing up those commie bastards in Nazzi uniforms on the front page if the Daily Telegraph.

        C’mon report. You need to convince those low income scum that tax breaks for foreign multinationals and cuts to public education are really good for them…… somehow.

  6. Yeah but its a Morgan. I’ll be more convinced when I see Newspoll, Ipsos, Essential, Galaxy etc consistently in the 52-48 range. If its 50-50 (or even 51-49 to the ALP) on 2PP the LNP will win. Not many seats moving in Queensland which is where the ALP needs to make big gains.

    • Terror Australis

      Why would you think Morgan is less accurate than any of the others?
      1) they use the largest sample size of any of the polls
      2) they reference PUP & NXT in their sample questions. Newspoll just lumps into “Other”
      3) they ask respondents to indicate preference for 2PP whereas Newspoll extrapolates from an election event 3 years ago.
      4) They use a “multi-mode” survey method whereas others use robo-calls or online samples, both of which have inherent sample bias.

      Morgans has at least as good reputation as the other pollsters for predicting election results. They were the most accurate predictor of the 2007 and 2010 fed election results. They also accurately predicted “too close to call” in last year’s Qld election when every other pollster was predicting a comfortable Campbell Newman govt win.

    • The Patrician

      +1 Labor needs to win Brisbane
      The lastest Bris council election (last month) swung hard to the LNP contrary to the predictions

    • Torchwood1979

      Palma The Hutt is gone along with 11% of the primary vote so I’m convinced QLD is where this “knife edge” election will be won or lost.

      Most of us Queenslanders are quite parochial, so we’ll vote for whatever is perceived as “good for QLD” and I’m convinced we have a shorter attention span for pointless crap like politics and economics than most other states.

      Also, many QLD regional areas have already seen property crashes and there are seriously pissed off bogans everywhere, Labor will get few votes on the housing affordability issue and most of them couldn’t give two s***s about education.

      Hence I’m predicting a slim Coalition win.

      • The Patrician

        +1 Shorten has zero profile in Qld
        Will come down to local issues
        Land clearing laws are big in the regions
        The carve up of the PUP vote will decide crucial seats
        Qld Labor still don’t know why they got smashed in the Bris City Council elections. Dopey old LNP incumbent mayor flogged very presentable and capable younger Labor candidate
        ..and like it or not there is the Courier Mail factor already going hard LNP

      • The Coalition is on its way to losing 4-5 seats in WA.This means they have 4-5 seats that they cannot lose anywhere else. The Coalition has to then hang on 8 -10 seats across the rest of the country to either maintain majority government or be in the best place to make minority government work. (which we know they wont be able to, but hey lets just pretend for a bit.) When we count the notional ALP seats in NSW (2-3) it actually means that in the whole of the rest of the country (discounting WA and the notionals) the ALP only has to win 5-6 seats and we are in a Hung Parliament again.

        The last polling we saw for the Territories showed Labor winning Solomon, so there is one. Hindmarsh is another in SA. So that leaves four. Corangamite and Deakin in Victoria leaves two, and the Coalition is vulnerable in Eden-Monaro and Gilmore in NSW . And we haven’t even got to Qld or the rest of NSW yet, or one of the seats falling in Tasmania. The Coalition has so many marginal seats on or under 4%, and they are not travelling well in the polls at all.

      • Torchwood1979

        @The Patrician, I’m convinced BCC is a canary in the coal mine for QLD Labor at both Federal and State elections.

        Annastacia Palaszczuk needs to rack up some clear achievements other than “not being Mad Emperor Newman” to secure a second term. Not saying her government has been bad, but Joe and Jane Public can’t really point to any achievements thus far.

        In the big smoke of SE QLD I think this “meh” attitude to Labor will hurt Shorten’s campaign and any swing toward Labor will be too little.

      • GunnamattaMEMBER

        @Nathan I couldnt speak vis the rest but i have spoken with local Torynuffs vis Corrangamite and been told that the outlook is ‘frightening’ as far as they are concerned. The outer burbs of Geelong Torquay and Ocean Grove have tilted to ALP and the former conservative Surf Coast and Otway hinterland has gone Green. A Tory organiser suggested to me that Henderson could be the last LNP member seen for a while unless the ALP coqued up (always possible)

      • @Nathan – Bass and Lyons in Tasmania are good as gone. Ashtray on a motorcyle that he is, Brett Whiteley will probably hold on in Braddon.

      • Victoria is very different to the rest of the country Gunna. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Greens become the major left-of-centre party in Victoria by mid-century. Queensland may as well be another planet.

  7. Terror Australis

    LNP has the distinct whiff of death about it.
    Yesterday MT was in Fremantle and the candidate he was there to meet went AWOL.
    The Delcons are on a suicide mission and Pets Credlin/ Tony Abbott are doing a good cop , bad cop routine.

    Not quite ready to call it curtains for the Libs yet, but getting close.

    Meanwhile, the Greens are going from strength to strength.
    In the worde of Barry Cassidy from the Insiders, “the Greens play their politics VERY well.”.

  8. In the socialist paradise, whoever promises the most free stuff wins.
    The people that rely on the free stuff (welfare class and the govt) eventually outnumber the people that produce stuff.
    That has already happened in this country as we are in $5trillion debt and rising every day.

    • “In the socialist paradise, whoever promises the most free stuff wins.”

      This is what happens when a nation wholeheartedly embraces neoliberalism. You offshore jobs and businesses, sell out your work force and eventually you hollow out your economy. Sure, government and private debt (and if you’re really lucky a mining boom) can cover up the rot for a decade or so, but eventually the whole things collapses.

    • Oh you’re absolutely right Buzzy.

      So……… let’s cut tax for foreign multinationals.

      Oh wait, that’ll add to the debt.

      No wait ….. ummmm …. it won’t …… how ….. ummm ….. ummm … look over there! Some dole bludgers!

    • Public and Private sector balance sheets are juxtaposed e.g. debt is not what you think it is….

      If you want to question anything it should be the quality of the debt and its social purpose, not just the ideal of debt its self. National income does not pay for stuff and taxes at a national level destroys money.

      Anywho it get a bit more complicated on a global scale…

      http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2010/03/parenteau-on-fiscal-correctness-and-animal-sacrifices-leading-the-piigs-to-slaughter-part-1.html

      Disheveled Marsupial…. debt to yourself is not the same as to someone else… nor can everyone be a net exporter or importer…

      • To paraphrase Donne…. no country is an island, geography aside.

        http://portal.ransquawk.com/headlines/aud-note-from-westpac-16-05-2016

        Already the coupon payments on our debt are starting to effect the national currency. How much longer can it be until we have to borrow to make the interest payments ? The US got to that stage in 2006.

        This is why the large important bond issues shouldn’t be exported, hang you head in shame Treasury.
        There are things we need that have to come from overseas people who won’t take spurious promises for them, they will insist on something of real value in exchange. What has real value changes over time and circumstances.

      • Everything is a contract at the end of the day, those trying to forward non recourse trade are in denial of facts and history…

  9. sydboy007MEMBER

    The NG lies and galantly defending the right to own multiples IPs has awoken the animal spirits of the downtrodden Gen X and millenials. Reasonably priced housing and education, along with cities that aren’t gently moving car parks for 6 or so hours a day, shouldn’t be something a political party would fight against.

    I gain solace from the fact a majority of people still think the LibNuts will win, thought they will be severely wounded. This is the best option. The LibNuts aura of economic competence needs to be destroyed. Would benefit the entire political system. Hopefully the greens can gain enough votes that in the next election they can force themselves into the debates. The rise of the greens and Aldi are strikingly similar in Australia 🙂

    • Torchwood1979

      LOL! No poll is ever going to be more inaccurate than 1993 🙂

      “These days turned out nothing like I had planned”

  10. adelaide_economist

    I can’t help but feel that if the Coalition thought the Senate was ‘unworkable’ before they are going to be very disappointed by what they get after. They couldn’t negotiate with a cross bench full of quite (small c) conservative Senators and now they’ll likely face an even bigger crossbench with any survivors probably much more hardened against cooperating with a Coalition government.