From Roy Morgan:
In mid-May ALP support 52.5% (up 1.5%) is now clearly in front of the L-NP 47.5% (down 1.5%) on a two-party preferred basis after the first week of official campaigning following Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull’s decision to call a Double Dissolution Election for Saturday July 2.
This is easily the best result for ALP since Malcolm Turnbull became Prime Minister in September 2015 and if a Federal Election were held now the ALP would win.
Primary support for the L-NP is 36.5% (down 3.5%) with ALP at 33% (up 0.5%). Support for the Greens is up 2% to 15.5%, Nick Xenophon Team (NXT) 5% (up 1%; 19.5% in South Australia), Katter’s Australian Party is 0.5% (down 0.5%), Palmer United Party is 0% (unchanged) and Independents/ Others are at 9.5% (up 0.5%).
The massive vote for minority parties (30.5%) suggests that today they would definitely control the Senate and the Greens and the Nick Xenophon Team (NXT) could control the House of Representatives.
Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating
The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is up this week to 102 with 41.5% (up 2%) of Australians saying Australia is ‘heading in the right direction’ and 39.5% (down 2%) saying Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.
This week’s Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted last weekend, May 14/15, 2016, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 2,318 Australian electors.
Analysis by Gender
Analysis by Gender shows women heavily favouring the ALP and men slightly in favour of the L-NP. Men: L-NP 51% (down 1%) cf. ALP 49% (up 1%); Women: ALP 56.5% (up 2.5%) cf. L-NP 43.5% (down 2.5%).
Analysis by Age group
Analysis by Age group shows that Turnbull’s biggest problem remains convincing younger voters to support the L-NP. The ALP leads easily with electors under 50: 18-24yr olds (ALP 65.5% cf. L-NP 34.5%), and 25-34yr olds (ALP 67% cf. L-NP 33%) and 35-49yr olds (ALP 54% cf. L-NP 46%). However the L-NP leads the 50-64yr olds (L-NP 51% cf. ALP 49%) and the L-NP leads easily amongst those aged 65+ (L-NP 60.5% cf. ALP 39.5%).
Analysis by States
The L-NP now holds a two-party preferred lead in only one Australian State. The ALP leads in Tasmania: ALP 57.5% cf. L-NP 42.5%, Victoria: ALP 56.5% cf. L-NP 43.5%, Western Australia: ALP 54% cf. L-NP 46%, South Australia: ALP 53% cf. L-NP 47% and New South Wales: ALP 50.5% cf. L-NP 49.5% and the L-NP leads in only Queensland: L-NP 51% cf. ALP 49%.
The Morgan Poll surveys a larger sample (including people who only use a mobile phone) than any other public opinion poll. The Morgan Poll asks Minor Party supporters which way they will vote their preferences. *News Corp’s Newspoll does not measure or reference the PUP or NXT vote!
The Morgan Poll allocated preferences based on how people say they will vote – allocating preferences by how electors voted at the last Federal Election, (as used by News Corp’s Newspoll) shows the ALP (52%) cf. L-NP (48%) for trends see the Morgan Poll historic data table.
And my own chart of first term PMs:
Time for some Shirley Bassey: