Primary support for the L-NP is 40% (down 0.5%) with ALP at 32.5% (up 0.5%). Support for the Greens is down 0.5%% to 13.5%, Nick Xenophon Team (NXT) 4% (down 0.5%; 20.5% in South Australia), Katter’s Australian Party is 1% (up 0.5%), Palmer United Party is 0% (unchanged) and Independents/ Others are at 9% (up 0.5%).In early May ALP support 51% (down 1%) is again in front of the L-NP 49% (down 1%) on a two-party preferred basis. This is the best result for ALP since Malcolm Turnbull became Prime Minister in September 2015. However, if a Federal Election were held now the result would be too close to call and would likely result in a hung Parliament.
Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating
The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is down slightly this week – down 1pt to 98 with 39.5% (down 1%) of Australians saying Australia is ‘heading in the right direction’ and 41.5% (unchanged) saying Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction’. This is the lowest the Government Confidence Rating has been since Malcolm Turnbull became Prime Minister.
This week’s Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted over the last two weekends, April 23/24, 30 & May 1, 2016, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 2,951 Australian electors.
Analysis by Gender
Analysis by Gender shows men favouring the L-NP while women are easily favouring the ALP. Men: L-NP 52% (down 1%) cf. ALP 48% (up 1%); Women: ALP 54% (up 1%) cf. L-NP 46% (down 1%).
Analysis by Age group
Analysis by Age group shows that Turnbull’s biggest problem remains convincing younger voters to support the L-NP. The ALP leads easily with electors under 35: 18-24yr olds (ALP 63% cf. L-NP 37%) and also leads amongst 25-34yr olds (ALP 64.5% cf. L-NP 35.5%) and the L-NP now leads with 35-49yr olds (L-NP 51.5% cf. ALP 48.5%). However the 50-64yr olds are split (L-NP 50% cf. ALP 50%) and L-NP leads easily amongst those aged 65+ (L-NP 59.5% cf. ALP 40.5%).
Analysis by States
The L-NP now holds a two-party preferred lead in only two Australian States. The L-NP leads in Queensland: LNP 52% cf. ALP 48% and Western Australia: L-NP 51% cf. ALP 49%. The ALP now leads in Victoria: ALP 54.5% cf. L-NP 45.5%, South Australia: ALP 53% cf. L-NP 47%, Tasmania: ALP 52.5% cf. L-NP 47.5% and New South Wales: ALP 50.5% cf. L-NP 49.5%.
Turnbott’s doom loop is enjoying its just desserts. Government legitimacy in free fall as well, back into the Gillard and Abbott ditch. My own charts shows the trend:
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal.
He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.
