ReachTEL sees Labor landslide

Cross-posted from Mark the Ballot.

The latest ReachTEL poll has Labor in a winning position with 52 per cent of the national two-party preferred vote, compared with the Coalition on 48 per cent: a four point lead. This is the third poll in a row where ReachTEL has allocated preferences using respondent preferences, rather than preference flows from the previous election. The respondent preferences appear to favour Labor by around a percentage point on average (but contained largely to the first and third polls). In past elections, respondent preferences have proved unreliable.

Because of this methodological difference, I have decided to treat these latest ReachTEL polls as a new series (labeled RT2 on the charts). This raises continuity issues: as it changes the property of the  sum to zero assumption, moving it slightly to Labor. As a consequence, I will use the TPP model that is anchored to the result at the last election from here on to the election.

The sum-to-zero TPP model has the Coalition on 49.3 per cent.

The TPP model anchored to the outcome of the previous election has the Coalition on 50.2 per cent.

Of note: both charts suggest that the Coalition held steady early in the campaign, bur has declined in the last week or so.

Meanwhile, from Newspoll today:

The Turnbull government is facing the prospect of losing 10 seats in NSW, six in Queensland and three in Western Australia, with a significant slump in support in the key election battlegrounds.

An analysis of Newspolls over the past two months, taken exclusively for The Australian, reveals the Coalition has suffered a 6 per cent swing against it in two-party-preferred terms in Queensland, a 7.3 swing in Western Australia and 3.6 per cent deterioration in NSW — enough to lose the election.

The polling also reveals that the Coalition, Labor and the Greens have surrendered significant ground in South Australia, where Nick Xenophon’s party has attracted one in five primary votes.

And the poll shows that in his home state of NSW, satisfaction with Malcolm Turnbull has fallen by 18 points since Christmas and is now lower than Tony Abbott’s 37 per cent just before he was dumped.

Houses and Holes
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  1. this is our democracy, a party that despite total media duopoly has direct support of only a third of voters is going to win by a landslide

    • What media duopoly?

      Who is going to win by a landslide.

      If AUS had representative democracy, the Greens would get 10% of the seats.

      • This is our democracy, yes It is based on preferential voting so indeed a party such as that you described can win. First past the post in the UK delivered Conservative government’s for 18 years from 1979 without once gaining more than 50 per cent of the vote. That’s their democracy. Given the Murdoch press and TV channel is a Liberal Party promotion machine, any Labor success should not be seen as an easily won or unfair phenomenom. I like watching Sky News to see the Liberal cheer squad contort the truth and speak through clenched teeth in favour of Turnbull, though they love Abbott. Sky News is to the Liberal Party what the Manchester United Channel is to Manchester United, talking of democracy.

  2. Turnbull’s support is lower than Abbott’s at dumping time? Bwahahahahahaha.

    All Turnbull had to do was float a couple of reasonable centrist policies like…I dunno…adjust negative gearing and have a royal commission into banking…and he would’ve been in power for at least two terms.

    Turnbull is a smart guy, but he isn’t the operator that he thinks he is. He had to sacrifice his principles so that the Liberal Loony right would put him into power. This meant his promises of sensible, adult moderate government all disappeared into the void amid a morass of nonsense, floundering and finger pointing. So now it looks like he may well have a good chance of achieving the impossible…ie getting Labor, led by Bill Shorten, into power.

    Turnbull thought he was king shit, but he turned out to be just a wet fart, and he’s going to go down as one of the greatest duds in the history of Australian politics. Billy McMahon is going to look like a mighty statesman compared to Malcolm Turnbull.

    • Back in that election, they called him “3 Dollar Bill” & “Billy the Goat” – the electorate agreed. It would be tough to go lower than Billy McMahon…

      • Torchwood1979

        McMahon was terrible, but what is surprising is how close he came to actually winning the ’72 election. One of the great myths of the “It’s Time” election is that Whitlam won with a landslide. Truth was, even though the Coaltion was totally dysfunctional and headed up by a laughable Prime Minister the Tories almost got another term. Just how dysfunctional was the Coalition at that time?

        Had the Liberals stuck with Gorton I think Whitlam may have had to wait another term, by which time he would have inherited an economy post 1973 oil crisis.

      • Thanks mate. FWIW…I’m a member of the evil cisgender, heteronormative, straight white male patriarchy. Thankfully I’m not quite a boomer, or I’d have no redeeming qualities whatsoever.

    • Sounds like good odds than for Labor. The northern end is anti-green territory.

      • Terror Australis

        True, but to the extent that such things matter, the Labor member in Batman, David Feeney has had a shocker. The Greens candidate, Alex Bhathal is running an energetic local campaign in the northern half of the seat.

      • They are not going to get very far with that. That area is more like outer suburbs which normally vote about 4% green. This might be counter by the Clifton Hill addition but there you are looking at any area which might contain a few Blue-Greens who are afraid of the Negative Changes.

        Feeney is a horrible candidate but the Labor vote hit rock bottom last time because of him. The Right in Victoria needs a new power broker.

  3. Am I the only one that thinks Turnbull’s heart is just not in this fight. I almost get the feeling the guys received a terrible diagnosis and is just moping around this campaign trying to come to terms with it.
    Every time his grankid appears he just chokes up and ends the news conference.
    Maybe he his worried what will come out of all those millions of Panama paper docs once someone spend the time to read them all.

    • Some politicians enjoy election campaigns, others don’t. Shorten seems to be enjoying it, Turnbull does not. It could be Malcolm reads our friends at MacroBusiness and is worried about the problems in the pipeline.

      • Mining BoganMEMBER

        St Mal isn’t enjoying it because social media isn’t allowing the MSM to control the message like it usually does. Facts are allowed to get out and frolic in the field instead of hanging on a hook in an abattoir.

        Remember when soon-to-be-back our Tony called social media graffiti? This is why. They be scared of it. Malcolm’s entire life is built on lies.

        He’s not scared of losing the election. He’s scared of being found out.

    • Yeah, same here. My partner saw a pic of him the other day and she said he looked really depressed.

  4. adelaide_economistMEMBER

    I think it’s obvious the Libs are genuinely seeing bad internal polls because all of a sudden they are hedging on whether they will ‘do deals’ post election. Remember how last week it was a firm ‘ no way’? Today their response is ‘Labor does that’ and ‘it’s all very hypothetical’. You couldn’t make this stuff up.