Cross-posted from Investing in Chinese Stocks.
It appears the housing market in Beijing peaked after Spring Festival, with April showing a clear change in trend.
January to April this year, Beijing commercial residential new construction area of 2.502 million square meters, down 18.4%; residential sales area of 2.302 million square meters, down 8.0%. Meanwhile, in the first quarter, second-hand housing transactions continued to hit the beginning of April “fever.”
Beijing Municipal Bureau of Statistics, National Bureau of Investigation Corps Beijing released on the 16th showed that from January to April this year, the Beijing real estate development investment of 94.76 billion yuan (RMB, the same below), down 3.1%, a decline in the first quarter expanded 1 percentage point. Beijing commercial residential new construction area of 2.502 million square meters, down 18.4%; commercial housing sales area of 2.302 million square meters, down 8.0%. To the end of April, Beijing commercial housing construction area of 50.793 million square meters, down 5.6%; commercial housing for sale area of 9.099 million square meters, an increase of 9.2%.
Beijing commercial housing market, “back” situation continued, while in the first quarter of this year continued to hit the second-hand housing transactions, in April a “fever” signs. According to the Beijing Municipal Commission of Housing and Urban-Rural Development announced in January this year, Beijing second-hand housing net signed amounted to 24312 units in February, second-hand housing net signed volume of 15,149 units in March increased to 32009 units, up 111.3 percent. In April, Beijing second-hand residential net signed volume 26374 units, a decline of 17.6%.
Analysis of the industry, in 2015 Beijing second-hand housing market continues to heat up in the stimulation of a series of favorable policies, especially after last October, the stock market further capital inflows pushed up the market, and has been extended to 2016 after the Spring Festival. However, due to high demand in the early to get a large release, coupled with continued reduction potential market demand is expected to post net signed scale will continue to fall.
iFeng: 北京前四个月商品销售下降 二手房4月退烧
A message went around Suzhou saying a developer slashed prices 9000 yuan/sqm. Buyers balked, leaving some to wonder if this is the turning point for Chinese real estate.
Although Suzhou is a second-tier cities, but such a decline this year in the first-tier cities have not appeared, does this mean that the national housing prices turning point has come?
At least in [my] opinion, it is indeed a small sign that home prices have topped, it’s already not the best time to buy a house.
However, the price drop isn’t really a 9,000 slash, it’s the difference between a fully furnished apartment and an empty one.
We must first understand whether the news is true straight down 9K? Lord for this state to the identity of buyers to call to verify the sales offices.
Sales argument is that this is not the price, because the previous price 26,000 yuan / square is a decoration, May 7 launch of the rough housing, so the price is 17,000 yuan / square.
But decorating in Suzhou should only cost about 3,000 to 4,000 yuan per square meter for an elaborate set up.
“Although there are gaps, but the hardcover blank, to drop 9,000 yuan / square, accounted Rate (26,000 yuan / square) 1/3 in Suzhou renovation costs could not have such a high standard decoration to three to four thousand it has been very powerful. Say it is Shanghai, 9,000 yuan / flat decoration, we have to be placed in the 90,000 to 100,000 yuan homes, can be said to be reasonable. “
One insider thinks they tried aiming for the large apartment market and priced themselves out.
Gifted Amoy city president Xue Jianxiong believes that the disc is in the price, probably because housing prices Early want the big house, but found that the price is set too high, the customer can not accept, so only by reducing the hardware configuration properties for sale on the grounds, the price tone it down.
Some industry insiders think it’s normal, but others wonder if there’s a debt issue behind the scenes. The bearish also point to a 32 percent drop in sales from March to April.
“Property prices, may be the developer funding chain issues, it may be a problem with the product structure, on the market, in fact, this kind of price adjustment is a normal phenomenon. Moreover, this is just a quote, is not the real price. ”
Wang Shinco Nanjing CRIC director’s view, similar to the kind of “Ba Jiuqian straight down” situation in Suzhou, fairly isolated phenomenon, because many projects in Suzhou deal fairly popular, such as the high-end original Lion Lake project, May 6 opening day Lanshou 3.5 billion.
But also from the point of view of market conditions, according to “Yangzi Evening News” reported that in April this year in Suzhou city (excluding Wujiang) housing a total turnover of 7886 units, of which a total turnover of 6483 residential housing units, a decline of 32.83 percent m/m, a decline compared with last year’s 10.22 percent increase over the same period.
Similarly, the second-hand housing turnover has decreased by 41.16 percent to 10,044 units, of which 9297 units of residential turnover, a decline of 41.83 percent.
It is not only Suzhou:
Wang Division, said, not only in Suzhou, including Nanjing, Wuxi also appeared to reduce the amount of visitors to the situation, “This is mainly because high growth expectations are not very strong, buyers expecting prices will fall later is more serious.”
Prices remain elevated in Jiangsu province despite falling volume.
As mentioned above, the Suzhou property market volume and stocks all the way down:
Suzhou, a Monitoring Center statistics show that the first week of May, Suzhou housing turnover fell below one thousand units, 864 units, a decline of 805 units, a decline of 48.23 percent w/w.
At the same time, CRIC data show that, Suzhou property market can sell stocks fell by 7.95 million square meters to 3.61 million square meters this year in April, the digestion period is reduced to 3.2 months.
But now, many important cities in Jiangsu house prices are still going up.
April’s “China Real Estate Index System hundred cities price index” shows that Jiangsu into the statistics of 17 cities, housing prices there are 13, including Kunshan prices rose 6.06 percent, ranking first in the province of gains. Suzhou and Nanjing, two hot cities, prices rose respectively 5.49% and 4.73%.
Relevant agency statistics also showed that 4 Suzhou residential average transaction price of 17,553 yuan / square meter, up 3.7%, an increase of 54.12%.
The market is still rising, but there are substantial individual cases appear slashed prices, which is already in the release signal, although small signal, but it is still in that house prices has begun to show the top, back again ascribed price of space is not Great, now probably is not the best time to buy a house.
But do not worry too much, the Suzhou market, it is in a normal big cycle. Wang Shinco, believes that at this time fluctuations in the property market turnover of Suzhou, is a real estate operation cycle short cycle, reasonable phenomenon.
“The real change in the market structure, triggered by volume changes yet to come, because if this happens, it is the early signs can be seen from the land market.”
At present, the land market is still higher temperature Suzhou. May 23 and 24 on two days to sell 20 plots of land (Suzhou City Land Resources Bureau data), and attracted over 30 competing housing prices, land prices are also starting at 20,000 / square around, the developers general forecast is good.
For the bulls, the volume drop could be short-term and weekly data is notoriously volatile. Even if the slowdown continues in Suzhou, it may also be a stabilization in the market rather than a cyclical downturn. For the bears, the fact that buyers didn’t swarm a more than one-third cut in prices is a potential sign of a psychological shift. Price follows volume as well; if sales don’t recover, more price cuts are likely.
iFeng: 二线城市一楼盘竟降9000元/平 买房人犹豫了
And now, the city of Suzhou has temporarily cancelled a land sale. Instead of weakening conditions, however, the reason for the delay is said to be imminent buying restrictions designed to cool the market.
According to media reports, Suzhou City Land Resources Bureau May 17 hang out, “Suzhou city state-owned construction land use right transfer listed online using the announcement,” said the council on April 20 listed five plots, since the planning and optimization reasons, the municipal government put the transfer on hold. Five have three plots located in Suzhou region, a city located in phase, a high-tech zones.
Just to get to a Suzhou housing prices related sources, understand the latest situation is that Suzhou about to launch control policies, involving the purchase .
Suzhou Municipal Government held on the afternoon of May 17 regular meeting, the theme is to stabilize the real estate work, the Conference adopted the purchase program, to be published on May 23, 24, 2011 execution. The main content is that buyers must meet to pay more than a year of social security, personal income tax to pay for more than 2 years, the introduction of mandatory buy another residence one year and so on, to prevent real estate and pay social security.
It was informed that multi-confirmation, Suzhou Municipal Government intends to housing prices to get down to the idea, otherwise the market continued mad, most housing prices and no chance to get to. After the above suspension of transfer of land, it is possible and other policies, the market has cooled before re-launched.
iFeng: 苏州突然撤销5幅土地出让拟推出限购政策
