Macro Morning (Trading Week)

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by Chris Becker

Another week is over in markets with traders questioning if this bear market reflation rally is finally over as US stocks fall for the third week in a row with Chinese stocks also rolling over. A divergence between economic domestic data in the US, where consumer confidence and retail sales are rising in a low inflation environment is not being matched by fundamental data as US stocks earnings continue to disappoint. It wont help that over the weekend, Chinese authorities released Aprils industrial production and retail sales data which was underwhelming to say the least. Currencies continue to show the way as USD continues to firm as the Fed remains the only central bank of note that looks like normalising rates anytime soon, while Europe and Japan headlong into deflation.

Recapping Asia first where the Shanghai Composite fell on Friday again, down 0.3% to temporary support at 2830 points. Price has now been below the low moving average for over a week and while oversold technically, is very weak here:

ssec_ix_price_daily_and_commodity_channel_index___daily___40_periods.10nov15_to_21may16

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