Inside CBA’s bad loans

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From Mac Bank today:

 While we are cautious in reading too much into quarterly trends, CBA’s semi-annualised underlying earnings appear to be ~3% below our expectations and ~2% below consensus. The semi-annualised impairment charge was ~28% above our forecast as CBA took provisions for its stressed exposures in the institutional bank. Pre-provision analysis highlights weakness in the result

 On a pre-provision profit basis, the result looked soft relative to both our expectations and consensus. Although we recognise that rounding off the reported numbers provides a possible range of outcomes, we note that the result appears to be slightly below consensus even based on more optimistic $2.34b outcome. At $2.3bn, the quarterly result appears to be ~3% below our forecast and ~2% below consensus.

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About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.