While the Murdoch Press continues its shameless beat-down of Aussie battler Duncan Storrar, following his appearance on this week’s Q&A program, the Australian National University’s (ANU) Centre for Social Research and Methods has released modelling supporting Storrar’s argument which shows that Australia’s poorest families will by hardest hit by the Turnbull Government’s Budget measures. From The Age:
Single-parent families in the poorest 20 per cent of households will be worst affected by the 2018-19 financial year, mainly through scheduled cuts to family tax benefits and hikes in tobacco excise.
Those families will be $1407 worse off a year, the equivalent of 3.6 per cent of average incomes for that group.
Couples with children in the poorest fifth of households will lose $1146, or 2.7 per cent of average incomes, should all budget measures be successfully introduced.
By contrast, relatively well-off couples with children in the second-top income quintile will be $392 a year better off by 2018-19…
The below figures tell the story, with low income families with children most affected:
And here’s the ANU report’s Conclusion:
The analysis here clearly shows that the proposed measures in the 2016-17 Budget would impact low income families with children more significantly than other families for the 201819 year. The losses for the middle and top income groups are proportionately much less than low income families.
The main impacts in this analysis are from reduction in welfare payments, mostly family payments. Tobacco excise will also more significantly impact lower income families. Income tax reductions, while relatively small for each person benefiting, do apply to a large number of people mostly in the top 40 per cent of the household income distribution.
The superannuation changes do assist in providing a more progressive budget impact. The top 20 per cent wears a $645 burden while the bottom 20 per cent gains $34 each year on average from the selected changes that were modelled for 2018-19.
The superannuation changes while significant are not enough to alter the conclusion that this budget has a regressive impact. This research models a total of $3.4 billion dollars in net savings for the budget but the superannuation changes are as modelled, in net terms, contributing only $900 million.
This budget has a lower impact on low income families than the previous two budgets. Analysis of the 2015 Budget shows that budget to have an impact more than twice that of this budget for the lowest income families and a roughly similar impact (very little) for high and middle income families for 2018-19.
