From Newspoll today:
The Turnbull government heads into today’s critical recalled sitting of parliament and a likely July 2 election trailing Labor in the latest Newspoll, as two-thirds of voters say reducing government spending must be Canberra’s priority.
Malcolm Turnbull yesterday reaffirmed his determination to go to a double-dissolution election if the Senate sticks by its vow to reject industrial relations bills, as the latest Newspoll, taken exclusively for The Australian, shows Labor maintaining its lead in two-party terms by 51 per cent to the Coalition’s 49 per cent.
Satisfaction with Mr Turnbull’s performance has fallen for the fifth consecutive Newspoll, and while he would enter a formal campaign still ahead of Bill Shorten as the preferred prime minister his lead over his Labor rival has halved since the start of the year.
Oh it’s on, from Mark the Ballot:
So, it is time to update the aggregation. Today’s Ipsos poll shifts the estimated national two-party-preferred vote share for the Coalition to 50.2 per cent.
As usual, please note that these models embody a number of assumptions and methodological issues which need to be considered when interpreting the model output. For more information look here.Turning to the primary vote data.
It is worth noting that the 2013 election saw an unusually low preference flow from other parties to the Coalition. If preference flows at the next election are more like the 2010 election, then the pollsters still have the Coalition well ahead in TPP terms.
Interestingly, on the attitudinal polling, there is a change from the consistent pollster treatment of then Prime Minister Abbott. Ipsos is more benign to Turnbull on the attitudinal polling in comparison with the other pollsters.
The Brick-with-eyes summed it up best when discussing the ABCC double dissolution trigger:
“I certainly won’t vote for it in its current form. I’ve always been a campaigner for a national corruption and misconduct watchdog and I think it’s a very relevant point. I don’t think we need to be attacking one particular sector, we need to be covering all misconduct and corruption.”
He said Mr Turnbull could lose the election.
From hero to zero in six months. Not even Kevin Rudd could boast that.