Polls hammer Turnbott

From Newspoll today:

The Turnbull government heads into today’s critical recalled sitting of ­parliament and a likely July 2 election trailing Labor in the latest Newspoll, as two-thirds of voters say reducing government spending must be Canberra’s priority.

Malcolm Turnbull yesterday reaffirmed his determination to go to a double-dissolution election if the Senate sticks by its vow to ­reject industrial relations bills, as the latest Newspoll, taken ­exclusively for The Australian, shows Labor maintaining its lead in two-party terms by 51 per cent to the ­Coalition’s 49 per cent.

Satisfaction with Mr Turnbull’s performance has fallen for the fifth consecutive Newspoll, and while he would enter a ­formal campaign still ahead of Bill Shorten as the preferred prime minister his lead over his Labor rival has halved since the start of the year.

Oh it’s on, from Mark the Ballot:

On Friday I reported that ReachTEL was at 50-50; and today it’s the Fairfax-Ipsos poll which is at 50-50. The best Fairfax reporting on this poll can be found in the Fin Review.

So, it is time to update the aggregation. Today’s Ipsos poll shifts the estimated national two-party-preferred vote share for the Coalition to 50.2 per cent.


As usual, please note that these models embody a number of assumptions and methodological issues which need to be considered when interpreting the model output. For more information look here.Turning to the primary vote data.

It is worth noting that the 2013 election saw an unusually low preference flow from other parties to the Coalition. If preference flows at the next election are more like the 2010 election, then the pollsters still have the Coalition well ahead in TPP terms.

Interestingly, on the attitudinal polling, there is a change from the consistent pollster treatment of then Prime Minister Abbott. Ipsos is more benign to Turnbull on the attitudinal polling in comparison with the other pollsters.

Which affects the aggregation of the attitudinal polling.

The Brick-with-eyes summed it up best when discussing the ABCC double dissolution trigger:

“I certainly won’t vote for it in its current form. I’ve always been a campaigner for a national corruption and misconduct watchdog and I think it’s a very relevant point. I don’t think we need to be attacking one particular sector, we need to be covering all misconduct and corruption.”

He said Mr Turnbull could lose the election.

From hero to zero in six months. Not even Kevin Rudd could boast that.

Comments

  1. Still can’t believe it’s so close after the exceptionally bad policy ideas.

    Australians – you know the Coalition proposed to cut funding to public schools but not private, right?

    Hello? Wake up?

    Or do more than half the country send their kids to private schools now?

    • Tassie TomMEMBER

      Prime minister Shorten? That’s why it’s still so close.

      I’m caught between a rock and a hard place too – don’t worry. However I cast my vote it will be with regret.

      • Yeah, ok.

        So shouldn’t we all encourage our fellow country mates to smarten up and stop fixating on individuals or even parties and start thinking about what actually makes a difference for the interests of the country….. i.e. policy?

        The ALP actually has some decent policies.

        You might be stating a fact here that it’s all because of Shorten but it’s disappointing that it just stops there with a …. meh?

        I thought we were free thinkers…. oh yeah, policies are good but don’t like that Shorten’s face… really?

      • Tassie TomMEMBER

        I totally agree with you Melbourneguy. I don’t even vote for Turnbull or Shorten – I’ll be voting for Andrew Nicolic or Ross Lyon. I’m not really sure what either of them will bring to the government – probably not very much except for a vote in one direction or another.

        Leaders are important though – I can just imagine Bill Shorten paralysed by internal polling focus groups telling him what the opinions suggest he should do, while his ministers get increasingly frustrated by his lack of direction and his backflipping which they then have to mop up. I hope I’m wrong.

      • I hear you Tom, but we should give voters more credit. This obsession with preferred leader seems to be more about media poll spin. I think most people understand voters don’t elect the leader, so to me it’s a bit meh to put too much weight on it. There will always be the dope voters who don’t think past the last television advert, but these days we are a bit more sophisticated …… I hope!

      • Shorten should have said “I have cancer” and passed the batton on to Albo. About 1-2 months after Turnbull became PM.

      • Being a plodder isn’t good enough for a PM. Think Julia selling selling Securency for 62 M just before the Uk and Canada turned polymer, Abbott and the car industry…… Mining tax ……

      • Terror Australis

        Three years ago Australia voted in overwhelming numbers for a mouth breathing glass licker to lead the nation, if that’s your narrative.

        I think the old truism of Oz politics still applies.
        “People don’t vote oppositions IN, they vote governments OUT”.
        I don’t think it’s particularly important who leads the ALP at this point in the game. Certainly it’s too late to change now.

        Morgans is due out later today, which should be illuminating. The Morgan poll breaks the data down by state and tends to reveal the one big ace that Turnbull has up his sleeve – the “Baird Factor”. The Liberals are doing much better in NSW than they are doing nationally. A large number of marginal seats that Labor needs are in NSW.

        On current information i think a slim Turnbull majority is the likely outcome.

      • bolstroodMEMBER

        “If some sensible plodder like Albanese were top dog…”
        I agree H&H, with what is coming, Albo would be my pick as PM to get us thru, but , he may not even be in the next parliament. He is under great threat from the Greens in his seat.

      • Terror Australis

        I think Albanese will survive.
        He draws a lot of water in the Grayndler electorate.

        Assuming Labor fall short I would like to see Tony Burke as leader.

      • One would hope that voters know the difference between a popularity contest and a party with policies. There are no popular Bob Hawkes or Keating these days who could swing the vote with a few clever doorstops. Watching MT lately, he seems to be umming and erring and certainly not the confident agile silver tongue of last year. If the ALP stick to the knitting and not get drawn into a leadership contest then it could be a drover’s dog contest. Two months is a long time in politics.

    • Can you quantify your statements on this. Otherwise I may suggest that you are engaging in some nifty disinformation. I’m under the impression that every child who attends a school in Australia gets an equal base subsidy. Public schools then get additional from the public purse and private schools from the parent fees. You are suggesting that children in private school have no right to the base subsidy? Are you interested in making these schools only for the elite and push those middle income riff-raff off into public education to stress that system even more and remove even more general opportunity?

      • Today's Empire Tomorrow's Ashes

        You are suggesting that children in private school have no right to the base subsidy? Are you interested in making these schools only for the elite and push those middle income riff-raff off into public education to stress that system even more and remove even more general opportunity?

        That’s exactly what I think. You opt out of public, you’re on your own.
        The only problem is areas with exceptionally bad public schools, and I don’t have an answer for that.

      • TETA. So your solution is to put all the strain on the public purse. Collapse the already stressed public schools, add further housing stress to good school zones and generally debase the overall quality of education by further diluting those funds that make it to the actual schools. The end result will be good schools only for the really elite, as a side effect even more limited fertility as families need two full time jobs to hold down a mortgage on a two bedroom apartment and pay for extreme school fees for their only child.

      • So your solution is to put all the strain on the public purse.

        Seems to work OK in Finland.

        Worked OK here as well until Little Johnny started on his mission of social destruction.

        All that money being poured into private schools can be redirected into the public schools to build more and make them better.

      • The only problem is areas with exceptionally bad public schools, and I don’t have an answer for that.

        Make them better ?

      • Private school just use the government money for real estate and fixed asset purchase rather than education or reducing school fees. They buy stuff like real estates, boat sheds, or swimming pools. Scotch college even bought private beach.

    • Aspirational voters will aspire, and Oz is 50+% aspirational. Kimmy will vote for whoever promises her the biggest tax breaks when she’s rich and lording it over her tenants.

      Australia needs an economic depression, and it’s coming too. Kimmy is NOT going to be happy when Brett gets laid off and the bank still wants its pound of flesh.

    • Mining BoganMEMBER

      Why do we even have private schools? It’s been proven that the academic outcomes are no different so it must be about ideaology. Only a nation with its head up its own arse thinks that’s acceptable to fund.

      • Why do we even have private schools?

        They help to entrench social divisions. Hence they will be supported by the people who long for the good old days of class society when delicate middle class children didn’t mix with those scruffy working class louts. Ie: Liberal voters.

      • It actually lowers overall academic performance of the nation. Private only looks good because their competition, I.e. Public schools, is diminished. However, as NAPLAN is showing, overall standard is going down.

      • IMO private schools are more about networking opportunities rather than academic ones.

        You don’t want to send your beloved children to a school with the great unwashed, do you?

  2. GunnamattaMEMBER

    My personal gauge of the punters is that in the Melbourne/Geelong/Bellarine end of things there is a lot of suspicion of the ALP (and in particular Shorten) but I reckon too widespread understanding that Turnbull is Bullshido.and the government he fronts is pure chaos and ad hockery.

    At the moment I am not sure who he thinks he is actually governing for. You can see ScoMo is still governing for the Real Estate lobby, you can see Cormann is governing for WA Torynuff set, Pyne for the SA set a batch for the Vic and NSW sets and so on – they are all playing for themselves or a small batch of confreres at this point.

    The budget would be the point at which the wheels come right off. Turnbull cant really back away from a DD on July 2 from here, but could still find himself fried at the altar of public ridicule from a range of source before then. He has to frame a budget which can be sold as progressive enough for punters to think he has the nations interest at heart (and the nation is suspicious – and increasingly informed) but he has to keep enough of the standard Torynuff vested interests aboard to make them enthusiastic, and at the moment I dont think he can. So that leaves him having to craft a budget which is.

    -Torynuff ideology
    -Popular
    -or neither one nor the other

    and from there he has to take it past the ALParatchiks who have stolen the high (electoral) ground on the future and economic responsibility with their call for an end to Negative Gearing and a RC into Banks – which means that anything in the budget which doesnt measure up progressive wise will be held to ridicule alongside the ALP NG & Super proposals, and any sops to the Finance sector will be ridiculed before a public already inclined to disbelieve the banks.

    Then there is an APS which is in bargaining mode which remains the last real capacity for policy analysis – meaning that election campaign (for the ALP too but for the government first and foremost) could become an electoral minefield as policy proposals get shot down by aggrieved public servants who have the facts – Submarine costs anyone? Foreign owners of RE anyone?.Anyone want to nickel and dime the elderly with a little social welfare nip and tuck? Who is or isnt actually paying tax? – at their fingertips.

    This is going to be the most surreal election campaign Australia has had in a long time.

    • Surreal indeed! Watching MT and his cronies wave at the truckies driving through the place put me off my morning cereal. The union bash has been neutered by the corporate stench and no one gives two bob about this proposed building corruption commission, so for my money it’s neck and neck.

    • “The budget would be the point at which the wheels come right off.”
      Couldn’t agreed more Gunnamatta. Even if it didn’t, I think MT/LNP are much more likely to misstep during the long election campaign than Shorten/ALP. Of course a tail risk such as Tampa, 911, hot war, etc, could occur to kick the legs from under the ALP. Interesting times…

    • Terror Australis

      Palmer winning Fairfax? 0%
      Palmer winning a Senate seat? 0%

      Jacqui Lambie has a very good chance of holding her seat in a DD.
      Glenn Lazarus has a smaller but still plausible chance.
      Xenephon seems on course for 3 or 4 Senate seats.
      Bob Day and David Leyonhejlm both have some chance of re-election.
      Not impossible that some fringe minor party like ALA, Sex Party or Christians snag a seat somewhere.

      Muir, Madigan and Wang should get their resumes ready.

      There are a lot of unknowns about how the new Senate rules will translate.

      • Mining BoganMEMBER

        It would be good to see Senator Ricky-Bobby get another crack. Once he worked out how the place worked(getting conned by ScoMo), he’s been impressive.

        The Brick too. Not sure about Lambie. Some good, some appalling. The rest can hang.

      • David Leyonhejlm has no chance unless voters confuse his party with Liberals again.
        Bob Day has very little chance now that there are no backroom senate ballot dealings anymore.

      • Terror Australis

        David Leyonhejlm has no chance unless voters confuse his party with Liberals again.
        I wouldn’t be absolutely certain about that.

        In the last two years he has gotten a bit of media coverage particularly for his advocacy on gun-owner’s rights issues (which I don’t personally support for the record) that might win him some converts from the Shooters-Fishers and like minded.
        Also, in 2013 the LDP registered:
        SA 3.5% and WA 3.4% presumably where they didn’t have the assistance of favorable ballot positions.

        Family First likewise registered 3.8% in SA.

        Whether 3%-4% primary is enough for either candidate to retain a Senate spot remains to be seen.

      • Terror Australis

        She’s they call a “retail politician”.
        Appeals very successfully to a particular type of voter.
        Barnaby-esque.

      • Correct. She also has excellent name recognition.

        I’m probably more interested in politics than your average punter but I’m not a junkie. As an exercise, I went and looked up our Tasmanian senators. Without doing that, I could have probably named 6 or 7 of them off the top of my head. When I looked at the list, there were a few instances of ‘oh yeah, that one’, and a couple of ‘yes I’ve seen your name before but that is it, I know nothing about you.’

        And yet I suspect almost everyone, regardless of how disinterested in politics they are, have at least heard of Lambie. That counts for something I reckon.

  3. Mining BoganMEMBER

    Ha! One of the chief cheerleaders from Malcolm’s ABC, Fran Kelly, must be desperate. She’s back to the killing fields.

    She might want to have a look at what is going on with her chosen Gods…

  4. I’m way out of the loop but I must admit I’m a little surprised that sentiment has turned so markedly when Turnbull hasn’t really done anything, at all. Raises the question what are those early MT supporters pissed off by, personally I’m left to believe it’s the lack of change, the lack of new direction, what some might call the lack of leadership.
    I called a couple of Sydney business people on Saturday, one of that was close to MT a few years back. I got a rather frank and interesting assessment, basically damned if he moves damned if he doesn’t. The problem is that everyone wants change but no two people want the same change.
    In many ways as opposition the LNP created this environment of discontent by whipping up every minor issue into an existential threat. As a result many Aussies have strong opinions on a range of issues that really don’t impact them all that much, similarly all Aussie fear change is inevitable on the one thing they have in common (participation in the housing Bubble) yet even on this common ground opinions about needed change are dramatically divided. Many boomers actually feel cheated that their “savings” are not earning an acceptable rate of return, I’ve actually attended BBQ’s where this sentiment was expressed rather vociferously….they’re cheating us…when I was young I paid 18% interest on my house loan yet today’s young are getting a virtual free ride….hmmm….does give one cause to wonder what could possibly be done to please this person especially considering said individual had at least a half a dozen Sydney IP’s.
    Poor MT’s caught in the middle taking advice from both sides and realizing that any action what-so-ever will result in lost support and worsening poll numbers, he lacks the depth of party support to move beyond this indecision. MT’s best play is to engineer a diversion that emphasizes traditional party divide lines unfortunately the issues that he has at hand don’t fall along traditional Aussie political lines.
    Take Gay marriage, a deeply dividing issue that has wide spread support and opposition in both party camps. Youth unemployment is a similarly divisive issue where globalization along with educational shortfalls, skill deficits and ultimately demand deficits are playing a much larger role in shaping the front-lines than any traditional ALP/LNP policy….on these issues MT’s damned whatever choices he makes.

    • “The problem I everyone wants change, but no two people want the same change”

      I would imagine that has always existed. It takes talent to shift a number of people to compromise to a common change by consensus. Guts like Keating accomplished this.

      This suggests the problem is Turnball

    • Ronin8317MEMBER

      Refusing to change anything is also a policy. MT is a huge disappointment because his only different from Abbott’s “policy by slogans” is that the new slogans have more syllables. People want a government that works, and currently the Australian government is not working.
      Taje the GST for instance. MT announced it, then ran away from it when it is not popular in the poll, leaving ScoMo holding the bag. Inncome tax to the States? Announced and dropped. Capping negative gearing? Announced and dropped. See the pattern?

      • No Argument but from what I’ve heard MT philosophically favors a stronger Judiciary AND also favors the states taking back many of the powers that have been effectively usurped since federation. Obviously that can’t begin to happen until some viable taxing scheme is introduced at the state level. Most federal politicians do not share his enthusiasm for either of these positions.
        I have zero experience with politics but even in business the decentralization of power is a major issue especially with individuals that seek power through position. They’ve achieved position and now you want to give away the power, when power was the only reason for achieving this position…it’s a good way to make enemies. Unfortunately decentralization is an essential first step to revitalize many staid organizations, without this step the name at the top changes but the rest of the system remains the same….I suspect as PM, MT is coming to terms with this reality and would gladly give away federal political power if it revitalized each of the states…..Trouble is I don’t think the states are ready for such a shift. (can you imagine Eddie Obeid with even more power)

    • I don’t think democracy has changed a lot CB, neither in terms of politicians private agendas nor people’s incompatible expectations. So what has changed?

      Well, economically you could say that a laissez-faire attitude to government size and spending is now coming home to roost, along with Joe Public having been cosseted into making investments which were never going to benefit a real economy. He’s also been taught to think that the world isn’t competitive.

      No action can be taken to reduce our burgeoning debt without some vociferous opposition, the media of course handing them the loudspeaker. I mean, how could our media keep their jobs if they weren’t fanning the negative emotions of the groups with conflicting interests. Bad news is good news. Conflict sells… Nothing new there though.

      The bottom line? It’s taken a while for a whole number of domestic bills to come through the door, along with the dawning realization that the world never owed Australia a living. Now, the bills are at the doorstep and someone else is manufacturing everything and everyone is very upset. ..

      • I dont think Aussies are any more naive today than they were 20 years ago however today’s globalized world has little tolerance for any nations nativity and absolutely no respect for beliefs in exceptionalism especially when it arises from a the head-in-the-sand, ears covered populous all screaming I-cant-hear-you.
        I’m not a big fan of mining because I believe it’s has become the drug that Australia cant exist without. In effect our mineral wealth destroys the potential value of our human capital, that said I have a lot of sympathy for the miners/mining exec’s because they bear the brunt of an unbelievable naive populous who are left to engage in these clearly self destructive games.
        A globally integrated Aussie work force simply wont have the luxury of playing these games and I suspect that’s a reality that’s slowly becoming apparent.

  5. Does any of the head-up-the-ass poll-followers calling the election close wish to offer me even money ($2.00) today on ALP taking power in a DD election?

    Thought not.

    I can lay it off at $3.50 right now.

  6. How pathetic a nation, that will again swap to a pathetic alternative.

    A country that flaps in the wind like a drunken bird from side to side, aimlessly drifting with no purpose….just existing…..until it dies a slow death.

    That is Australia in 2016.

    Aimlessly, drifting, like a drunken bird.

    We are the dumbphucks of the Asia-Pacific.

    No direction. No policies for our youth. Nothing.

    Absolutely pathetic.

    Kids..See the writing on the wall.

    If you want to wipe Baby Boomer arses, stick around.

    Otherwise, stop paying ridiculous rent to Baby Boomers, and get the hell out of this prostitute we call Australia.

  7. Terror Australis

    Fortnightly Morgan Poll just out.
    Two party preferred is 50% ALP v 50% LNP.

    State swings:
    NSW 0.0 %
    QLD -6.0 %
    VIC -7.0 %
    SA -2.0 %
    WA -4.0 %
    TAS +5.5%
    NT/ACT – no info

    I’m puzzled by the Tas result. Could be a rogue number due to small sample size?

    Anyway, in terms of seat changes from 88 notional LNP’s
    NSW – no change
    QLD – loss of 6 seats
    VIC – loss of 4 seats
    SA – loss of 1 seat
    WA – no change
    TAS – gain of 1 seat (maybe?)

    NT no information but since the seat of Solomon was very marginal (1.4% LNP) let’s assume it falls.

    So we could be looking at an LNP final tally of 76 or 77 seats, depending on what you think of TAS.
    That also assumes no NET loss/gain from the LNP to independents or minor parties.

    There’s never been a more exciting time to be the Member for Warringah, I reckon.