Our Oil equities team has updated their oil supply, demand and price forecasts as well as discussed the major themes and risks surrounding their oil views for 2016 and beyond. The team’s new short- and long-term price forecasts are detailed in Exhibit 8. Below are excerpts from the March 11, 2016 report.
We lower our 2016 and 2017 Brent oil price forecasts by 14% to US$38.5/bbl and by 4% to US$59.5/bbl respectively, in coordination with our global energy equity and commodities research colleagues. We maintain our 2018E-2020E forecasts with 2020E/long-term Brent oil price forecast of US$53/bbl. We see volatility in near-term oil prices following the recent rally, e.g., current Brent oil price of around US$40/bbl vs. our 2Q16E forecast of US$35/bbl.
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David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal.
He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.
