Cross-posted from Essential Poll:
Q: If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward? If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
Total
Last week
5/4/16
2 weeks ago
29/3/16
4 weeks ago
15/3/16
Election 7 Sep 13
Liberal 39% 39% 39% 39% National 3% 3% 3% 3% Total Liberal/National 42% 42% 43% 42% 45.6% Labor 35% 37% 38% 36% 33.4% Greens 11% 10% 9% 11% 8.6% Palmer United Party 1% 1% 1% 1% 5.5% Other/Independent 10% 10% 10% 9% 6.9% 2 party preferred Liberal National 50% 50% 50% 50% 53.5% Labor 50% 50% 50% 50% 46.5% NB. Sample = 1,792. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2013 election.
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Approval of Malcolm Turnbull
Q: Do you approve or disapprove of the job Malcolm Turnbull is doing as Prime Minister?
Total
Vote Labor
Vote Lib/Nat
Vote Greens
Vote other
Oct 2015
Nov 2015
Dec 2015
Jan 2016
Feb 2016
Mar 2016
Total approve 39% 21% 69% 31% 16% 47% 56% 56% 51% 51% 45% Total disapprove 39% 60% 19% 52% 50% 17% 20% 23% 25% 27% 35% Strongly approve 7% 4% 15% 1% 1% 11% 12% 13% 9% 8% 6% Approve 32% 17% 54% 30% 15% 36% 44% 43% 42% 43% 39% Disapprove 23% 35% 15% 21% 27% 11% 14% 16% 16% 18% 24% Strongly disapprove 16% 25% 4% 31% 23% 6% 6% 7% 9% 9% 11% Don’t know 22% 19% 13% 17% 34% 35% 23% 21% 23% 21% 21% 39% (down 6% since last month) of respondents approve of the job Malcolm Turnbull is doing as Prime Minister and 39% (up 4%) disapprove – a net approval rating of zero (down 10).
69% (down 6%) of Liberal/National voters approve of Malcolm Turnbull’s performance with 19% (up 6%) disapproving. 21% (down 3%) of Labor voters and 31% (up 8%) of Greens voters approve of Malcolm Turnbull’s performance.
By gender, men were 41% approve/42% disapprove and women 37% approve/37% disapprove.
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Q: Do you approve or disapprove of the job Bill Shorten is doing as Opposition Leader?
Total
Vote Labor
Vote Lib/Nat
Vote Greens
Vote other
Nov 2013
June 2014
Dec 2014
Jun 2015
Dec 2015
Jan 2016
Feb 2016
Mar 2016
Total approve 30% 60% 16% 44% 14% 31% 38% 35% 32% 27% 27% 27% 27% Total disapprove 44% 18% 65% 39% 62% 27% 40% 39% 45% 47% 47% 48% 47% Strongly approve 5% 13% <1% 6% 1% 5% 7% 7% 6% 4% 4% 5% 3% Approve 25% 47% 15% 38% 13% 26% 31% 28% 26% 23% 23% 22% 24% Disapprove 22% 16% 25% 25% 33% 17% 22% 23% 27% 26% 28% 26% 29% Strongly disapprove 22% 2% 40% 14% 29% 10% 18% 16% 18% 21% 19% 22% 18% Don’t know 25% 22% 20% 18% 24% 43% 22% 26% 22% 25% 26% 25% 26% 30% (up 3%) of respondents approve of the job Bill Shorten is doing as opposition leader and 44% (down 3%) disapprove – a change in his net rating from -20 to -14.
60% (up 9%) of Labor voters approve of the job Bill Shorten is doing and 18% (down 6%) disapprove.
30% of men and 30% of women approve of Bill Shorten. 51% of men and 38% of women disapprove.
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Q: Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister out of Malcolm Turnbull and Bill Shorten?
Total
Vote Labor
Vote Lib/Nat
Vote Greens
Vote other
Sep 2015
Oct 2015
Nov 2015
Dec 2015
Jan 2016
Feb 2016
Mar 2016
Malcolm Turnbull 44% 17% 79% 31% 37% 53% 48% 55% 54% 51% 52% 48% Bill Shorten 22% 52% 3% 40% 10% 17% 19% 14% 15% 18% 15% 19% Don’t know 34% 31% 18% 29% 53% 30% 33% 31% 31% 31% 33% 33% 44% (down 4%) of respondents think Malcolm Turnbull would make the better Prime Minister and 22% (up 3%) think Bill Shorten would make the better Prime Minister.
49% of men prefer Malcolm Turnbull and 22% prefer Bill Shorten.
39% of women prefer Malcolm Turnbull and 23% prefer Bill Shorten.
AdvertisementABCC
Q: The Government plans to re-establish the Australian Building and Construction Commission to address claims of union militancy in the construction industry. The ABCC’s powers included preventing any person from revealing they had been forced to give testimony to the Commission, and overriding a person’s right to silence. Do you support or oppose re-establishing the ABCC?
Total
Vote Labor
Vote Lib/Nat
Vote Greens
Vote other
Oct 2013
Mar 2016
Total support 35% 24% 52% 25% 32% 29% 35% Total oppose 16% 25% 8% 32% 19% 22% 17% Strongly support 17% 8% 28% 13% 18% 12% 17% Support 18% 16% 24% 12% 14% 17% 18% Neither support nor oppose 23% 29% 20% 17% 20% 23% 27% Oppose 8% 11% 6% 10% 8% 9% 8% Strongly oppose 8% 14% 2% 22% 11% 13% 9% Don’t know 27% 22% 20% 26% 29% 25% 22% 35% support re-establishing the ABCC and 16% oppose. 23% neither support nor oppose and 27% don’t have an opinion. This is a very similar result to when this question was asked last month.
39% of full-time workers support and 15% oppose. 29% of part-time workers support and 12% oppose.
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Q: Compared to other issues the Government needs to address, how important is the issue of re-establishing the ABCC?
Total
Vote Labor
Vote Lib/Nat
Vote Greens
Vote other
Total important 34% 25% 51% 30% 28% Total not important 41% 53% 29% 54% 48% Very important 10% 5% 16% 7% 12% Somewhat important 24% 20% 35% 23% 16% Not so important 26% 31% 25% 22% 24% Not at all important 15% 22% 4% 32% 24% Don’t know 26% 23% 20% 15% 24% 34% say that re-establishing the ABCC is very or somewhat important compared to other issues the Government needs to address and 41% say it is not important.
Those more likely to think it is important were Liberal/National voters (51% and people aged 65+ (47%).
Those more likely to say it was not important were Labor (53%) and Greens (54%) voters.
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Q: The Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull has announced that he intends to recall Parliament in April to pass legislation to re-establish the ABCC (Australian Building and Construction Commission). If the Senate rejects the bill to restore the ABCC, or the Senate fails to pass it, would you approve or disapprove the Government calling a double-dissolution election?
Total
Vote Labor
Vote Lib/Nat
Vote Greens
Vote other
Mar 2016
Total approve 39% 35% 57% 36% 30% 34% Total disapprove 24% 34% 16% 33% 27% 22% Strongly approve 13% 11% 20% 11% 11% 13% Approve 26% 24% 37% 25% 19% 21% Disapprove 16% 20% 14% 20% 17% 15% Strongly disapprove 8% 14% 2% 13% 10% 7% Don’t know 36% 31% 27% 31% 42% 44% 39% would approve of the Government calling a double dissolution election if the Senate fails to restore the ABCC and 24% oppose. 36% don’t have an opinion.
This represents a small increase in approval since this question was asked in March.
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Fairness of tax system
Q: Now thinking about taxes – overall, how fair do you think our present Federal tax system is?
Total
Vote Labor
Vote Lib/Nat
Vote Greens
Vote other
Income less than $600 pw
Income $600 – $1,000 pw
Income $1,000 – $1,600 pw
Income $1,600- $2,000 pw
Income $2,000+ pw
Dec 2015
Total fair 36% 34% 48% 32% 24% 18% 33% 43% 33% 45% 40% Total not fair 55% 59% 44% 62% 70% 72% 58% 54% 60% 45% 52% Very fair 3% 3% 5% 3% 3% 1% 4% 5% 1% 5% 4% Moderately fair 33% 31% 43% 29% 21% 17% 29% 38% 32% 40% 36% Not too fair 30% 27% 32% 26% 30% 35% 28% 30% 39% 25% 30% Not fair at all 25% 32% 12% 36% 40% 37% 30% 24% 21% 20% 22% Don’t know 10% 6% 8% 5% 5% 9% 10% 4% 7% 10% 8% 36% think the Federal tax system is very or moderately fair and 55% think it is not too fair or not fair at all. This represents a small shift toward thinking the tax system is not fair since this question was asked in December.
Those most likely to think it not fair were Greens voters (62%), other voters (70%) and incomes under $600 pw (72%) and $1,600-$2,000 pw (60%).
Those most likely to think it is fair were Liberal/National voters (48%), incomes $2,000+ pw (45%) and university educated (43%).
Betting markets are now starting tho rebalance too, from Mark the Ballot:
