Essential poll: 50/50

Cross-posted from Essential Poll:

Q: If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward? If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

 
Total
 
Last week
5/4/16
2 weeks ago
29/3/16
4 weeks ago
15/3/16
 
Election 7 Sep 13
Liberal 39% 39% 39% 39%
National 3% 3% 3% 3%
Total Liberal/National 42%   42% 43% 42%   45.6%
Labor 35%   37% 38% 36%   33.4%
Greens 11% 10% 9% 11% 8.6%
Palmer United Party 1% 1% 1% 1% 5.5%
Other/Independent 10% 10% 10% 9% 6.9%
2 party preferred
Liberal National 50% 50% 50% 50% 53.5%
Labor 50% 50% 50% 50% 46.5%

NB.  Sample = 1,792. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2013 election.

Approval of Malcolm Turnbull

Apr 12, 2016

Q: Do you approve or disapprove of the job Malcolm Turnbull is doing as Prime Minister?

 
Total
 
Vote Labor
Vote Lib/Nat
Vote Greens
Vote other
 
Oct 2015
Nov 2015
Dec 2015
Jan 2016
Feb 2016
Mar 2016
Total approve 39%   21% 69% 31% 16%   47% 56% 56% 51% 51% 45%
Total disapprove 39%   60% 19% 52% 50%   17% 20% 23% 25% 27% 35%
Strongly approve 7% 4% 15% 1% 1% 11% 12% 13% 9% 8% 6%
Approve 32% 17% 54% 30% 15% 36% 44% 43% 42% 43% 39%
Disapprove 23% 35% 15% 21% 27% 11% 14% 16% 16% 18% 24%
Strongly disapprove 16% 25% 4% 31% 23% 6% 6% 7% 9% 9% 11%
Don’t know 22% 19% 13% 17% 34% 35% 23% 21% 23% 21% 21%

39% (down 6% since last month) of respondents approve of the job Malcolm Turnbull is doing as Prime Minister and 39% (up 4%) disapprove – a net approval rating of zero (down 10).

69% (down 6%) of Liberal/National voters approve of Malcolm Turnbull’s performance with 19% (up 6%) disapproving. 21% (down 3%) of Labor voters and 31% (up 8%) of Greens voters approve of Malcolm Turnbull’s performance.

By gender, men were 41% approve/42% disapprove and women 37% approve/37% disapprove.

Approval of Bill Shorten

Apr 12, 2016

Q: Do you approve or disapprove of the job Bill Shorten is doing as Opposition Leader?

 
Total
 
Vote Labor
Vote Lib/Nat
Vote Greens
Vote other
 
Nov 2013
June 2014
Dec 2014
Jun 2015
Dec 2015
Jan 2016
Feb 2016
Mar 2016
Total approve 30%   60% 16% 44% 14%   31% 38% 35% 32% 27% 27% 27% 27%
Total disapprove 44%   18% 65% 39% 62%   27% 40% 39% 45% 47% 47% 48% 47%
Strongly approve 5% 13% <1% 6% 1% 5% 7% 7% 6% 4% 4% 5% 3%
Approve 25% 47% 15% 38% 13% 26% 31% 28% 26% 23% 23% 22% 24%
Disapprove 22% 16% 25% 25% 33% 17% 22% 23% 27% 26% 28% 26% 29%
Strongly disapprove 22% 2% 40% 14% 29% 10% 18% 16% 18% 21% 19% 22% 18%
Don’t know 25% 22% 20% 18% 24% 43% 22% 26% 22% 25% 26% 25% 26%

30% (up 3%) of respondents approve of the job Bill Shorten is doing as opposition leader and 44% (down 3%) disapprove – a change in his net rating from -20 to -14.

60% (up 9%) of Labor voters approve of the job Bill Shorten is doing and 18% (down 6%) disapprove.

30% of men and 30% of women approve of Bill Shorten. 51% of men and 38% of women disapprove.

Better Prime Minister

Apr 12, 2016

Q: Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister out of Malcolm Turnbull and Bill Shorten?

 
Total
 
Vote Labor
Vote Lib/Nat
Vote Greens
Vote other
 
Sep 2015
Oct 2015
Nov 2015
Dec 2015
Jan 2016
Feb 2016
Mar 2016
Malcolm Turnbull 44% 17% 79% 31% 37% 53% 48% 55% 54% 51% 52% 48%
Bill Shorten 22% 52% 3% 40% 10% 17% 19% 14% 15% 18% 15% 19%
Don’t know 34% 31% 18% 29% 53% 30% 33% 31% 31% 31% 33% 33%

44% (down 4%) of respondents think Malcolm Turnbull would make the better Prime Minister and 22% (up 3%) think Bill Shorten would make the better Prime Minister.

49% of men prefer Malcolm Turnbull and 22% prefer Bill Shorten.

39% of women prefer Malcolm Turnbull and 23% prefer Bill Shorten.

ABCC

Apr 12, 2016

Q: The Government plans to re-establish the Australian Building and Construction Commission to address claims of union militancy in the construction industry. The ABCC’s powers included preventing any person from revealing they had been forced to give testimony to the Commission, and overriding a person’s right to silence. Do you support or oppose re-establishing the ABCC?

 
Total
 
Vote Labor
Vote Lib/Nat
Vote Greens
Vote other
 
Oct 2013
Mar 2016
Total support 35%   24% 52% 25% 32%   29% 35%
Total oppose 16%   25% 8% 32% 19%   22% 17%
Strongly support 17% 8% 28% 13% 18% 12% 17%
Support 18% 16% 24% 12% 14% 17% 18%
Neither support nor oppose 23% 29% 20% 17% 20% 23% 27%
Oppose 8% 11% 6% 10% 8% 9% 8%
Strongly oppose 8% 14% 2% 22% 11% 13% 9%
Don’t know 27% 22% 20% 26% 29% 25% 22%

35% support re-establishing the ABCC and 16% oppose. 23% neither support nor oppose and 27% don’t have an opinion. This is a very similar result to when this question was asked last month.

39% of full-time workers support and 15% oppose.  29% of part-time workers support and 12% oppose.

Importance of re-establishing ABCC

Apr 12, 2016

Q: Compared to other issues the Government needs to address, how important is the issue of re-establishing the ABCC?

 
Total
 
Vote Labor
Vote Lib/Nat
Vote Greens
Vote other
Total important 34%   25% 51% 30% 28%
Total not important 41%   53% 29% 54% 48%
Very important 10% 5% 16% 7% 12%
Somewhat important 24% 20% 35% 23% 16%
Not so important 26% 31% 25% 22% 24%
Not at all important 15% 22% 4% 32% 24%
Don’t know 26% 23% 20% 15% 24%

34% say that re-establishing the ABCC is very or somewhat important compared to other issues the Government needs to address and 41% say it is not important.

Those more likely to think it is important were Liberal/National voters (51% and people aged 65+ (47%).

Those more likely to say it was not important were Labor (53%) and Greens (54%) voters.

Double dissolution

Apr 12, 2016

Q: The Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull has announced that he intends to recall Parliament in April to pass legislation to re-establish the ABCC (Australian Building and Construction Commission). If the Senate rejects the bill to restore the ABCC, or the Senate fails to pass it, would you approve or disapprove the Government calling a double-dissolution election?

 
Total
 
Vote Labor
Vote Lib/Nat
Vote Greens
Vote other
 
Mar 2016
Total approve 39%   35% 57% 36% 30%   34%
Total disapprove 24%   34% 16% 33% 27%   22%
Strongly approve 13% 11% 20% 11% 11% 13%
Approve 26% 24% 37% 25% 19% 21%
Disapprove 16% 20% 14% 20% 17% 15%
Strongly disapprove 8% 14% 2% 13% 10% 7%
Don’t know 36% 31% 27% 31% 42%   44%

39% would approve of the Government calling a double dissolution election if the Senate fails to restore the ABCC and 24% oppose. 36% don’t have an opinion.

This represents a small increase in approval since this question was asked in March.

Fairness of tax system

Apr 12, 2016

Q: Now thinking about taxes – overall, how fair do you think our present Federal tax system is?

 
Total
 
Vote Labor
Vote Lib/Nat
Vote Greens
Vote other
 
Income less than $600 pw
Income $600 – $1,000 pw
Income $1,000 – $1,600 pw
Income $1,600- $2,000 pw
Income $2,000+ pw
 
Dec 2015
Total fair 36%   34% 48% 32% 24%   18% 33% 43% 33% 45%   40%
Total not fair 55%   59% 44% 62% 70%   72% 58% 54% 60% 45%   52%
Very fair 3% 3% 5% 3% 3% 1% 4% 5% 1% 5% 4%
Moderately fair 33% 31% 43% 29% 21% 17% 29% 38% 32% 40% 36%
Not too fair 30% 27% 32% 26% 30% 35% 28% 30% 39% 25% 30%
Not fair at all 25% 32% 12% 36% 40% 37% 30% 24% 21% 20% 22%
Don’t know 10% 6% 8% 5% 5% 9% 10% 4% 7% 10% 8%

36% think the Federal tax system is very or moderately fair and 55% think it is not too fair or not fair at all. This represents a small shift toward thinking the tax system is not fair since this question was asked in December.

Those most likely to think it not fair were Greens voters (62%), other voters (70%) and incomes under $600 pw (72%) and $1,600-$2,000 pw (60%).

Those most likely to think it is fair were Liberal/National voters (48%), incomes $2,000+ pw (45%) and university educated (43%).

Betting markets are now starting tho rebalance too, from Mark the Ballot:

 

 

Comments

  1. So most LNP voters say the tax system is not fair!

    And 59% of ALP voters say it is not fair.

    Time to have a mansion tax on the richest 10%.

    • “So most LNP voters say the tax system is not fair!”

      My guess would be they think they pay too much in the top bracket, despite those in the middle struggling to pay bills.

      In other words their gripe is not the mansion dwellers being too rich.

      • Rich, many of the mansion dwellers pay no tax. Those on the highest rate, not the corporate tax, paying gst on their earnings pay crushing tax.

      • Those on the highest rate, not the corporate tax, paying gst on their earnings pay crushing tax.

        I doubt many in the top tax bracket _actually_ pay “crushing tax”.

        I mean, I’m sure there’s the odd $180k+ earner here and there who doesn’t have negatively geared properties, trusts, or other tax dodging schemes, but I reckon you’d need to look long and hard to find them.

  2. Australians is so stupid. MT wants to give high earners and businesses tax cuts, stop funding public schools but not private, cut health system funding and cut university funding despite the whole ‘ideas boom’ thing.

    Yet the polls are 50 50.

    It’s like policy doesn’t even matter.

    Australians is so stupid.

    • Americans are stupid also. They vote for Clinton instead of Bernie!

      British are so stupid that they voted for David Cameron twice!

    • I don’t think the problem is bad LNP policy. I think it’s peoples’ reluctance to vote for Shorten or Greens. They can’t be trusted with borders to start with. We need new parties, or at least an absolute guarantee there won’t be a repeat of Rudd/Gillard/Rudd debacle that included mind numbingly dumb policy and lies particularly by Gillard.

      FFS, I’ve been saying this for a decade and it’s real, yet I continually get abused for it.

      Seriously, the left are their own worst enemy. The left are my enemy too because they’re destroying my country with their stupidity, lack of foresight and vision, so much we end up with Abbott and Turnbull shafting us all.

      Grow up lefties, start looking out for all Australians (not just the bottom), look after our own country and people first and you’ll be in power forever. Adopt a sustainable population policy. Oppose foreign ownership. Drop the global crusader BS. It’s too big to fix, and your power only exists if you are leaders of your own country first.

      Remain stupid and you get to make zero rules anywhere.

      • “They cant be trusted with borders” – I think that applies equally to the LNP who are operating an open door free for all. FYI Australia’s population reached 24m under their watch!!!

      • Stomper

        Yes I’m well aware of that. So much I bang on about it to anyone that will listen. It’s killing us.

        Labor and Greens allowed LNP to convince Australia the swell in our cities was an uninvited refugee problem. Hopefully now they’ve stopped, people will finally understand it’s the invited 300k that’s the problem.

        Either way, having a handful of uninvited refugees arrive is not a good thing for Australia or the Labor party.

      • I don’t remember voting for the population ponzi. Totally correct about both sides of politics. Melbourne is not nearly as good as it once was.

      • fitzroy

        Yep, the biggest con in modern times. We are being had, worse, we’re watching our kids be had. What kind of a society does that?

      • One that panders to banks, telcos (lnp) and special interst groups, ethnically based branch stacks and SJW (alp) to the detriment of everybody else.

    • Exactly.
      It doesn’t matter because no government will treat the times seriously.
      They all expect the central banks to do the heavy lifting.
      None of the politicians is serious.
      In Turnbull we thought we had someone who was seriously going to try to change circumstances because he didn’t have to worry about his next pay cheque.
      Unfortunately we are going to have to wait for the crack up boom before they get off their fat arses and do SOMETHING.

      • Are we experiencing the crack up boom at the moment? If so, and it certainly looks like one , for how much longer do you think?

      • Hi Fitzroy
        I’ve been expecting it for years but manipulating central banks have decided to change the inhalation and exhalation of the markets.
        They just want inhalation.

  3. Yeah when it comes to election day the average aussie will default to LNP because they have been programmed to be shit scared that Labor will make their house prices drop.

    • It is so scary that the whole point and purpose in Aussie lives now is to sacrifice everything including your kids future for the sake of keeping your house price from falling…screw fairness, screw education, screw universal healthcare…screw society….screw everything… just keep our exaggerated sky high shacks prices to the moon……Oz are miserable.

    • Aussies did that in 2004!

      They gave Howard a 4th term because they felt interest rates would be lower under Howard.

      • You seem to have forgot nut case Mark Latham. If only the media paid as much attention to Abbott as they did to Latham.

  4. Terror Australis

    I’m hoping for MT to win with a skinny margin or even a minority government. When the housing market turns pear shaped, taking the economy with it, I want the wrath to fall where it is most warranted.