Betting markets give Labor a faint sniff

Very faint but evident, from Mark the Ballot:

This morning sees further declines in the probability of a Coalition win at the next election according to the betting markets.

House Coalition Odds ($) Labor Odds ($) Coalition Win Probability (%)

2016-04-09 Betfair 1.33 3.00 69.28

2016-04-09 CrownBet 1.27 3.75 74.70

2016-04-09 Ladbrokes 1.27 3.50 73.38

2016-04-09 Luxbet 1.24 4.00 76.34

2016-04-09 Sportsbet 1.25 3.90 75.73

2016-04-09 TABtouch 1.25 3.75 75.00

2016-04-09 William Hill 1.25 3.90 75.73

Sa 2-Apr Su 3-Apr Mo 4-Apr Tu 5-Apr We 6-Apr Th 7-Apr Fr 8-Apr Sa 9-Apr

Betfair 75.64 75.20 75.64 66.67 70.05 72.15 70.83 69.28

CrownBet 78.95 78.95 78.95 78.95 78.95 77.70 76.19 74.70

Ladbrokes 78.95 78.95 78.95 78.95 75.00 75.00 74.07 73.38

Luxbet 81.17 81.17 81.17 80.86 75.10 75.10 76.34 76.34

Sportsbet 78.95 78.95 78.95 78.95 77.49 77.49 75.73 75.73

TABtouch 78.04 78.04 78.04 78.04 75.00 75.00 75.00 75.00

William Hill 78.95 78.95 78.95 78.95 75.73 75.73 75.73 75.73

	House	Coalition Odds ($)	Labor Odds ($)	Coalition Win Probability (%)
2016-04-09	Betfair	1.33	3.00	69.28
2016-04-09	CrownBet	1.27	3.75	74.70
2016-04-09	Ladbrokes	1.27	3.50	73.38
2016-04-09	Luxbet	1.24	4.00	76.34
2016-04-09	Sportsbet	1.25	3.90	75.73
2016-04-09	TABtouch	1.25	3.75	75.00
2016-04-09	William Hill	1.25	3.90	75.73

	Sa 2-Apr	Su 3-Apr	Mo 4-Apr	Tu 5-Apr	We 6-Apr	Th 7-Apr	Fr 8-Apr	Sa 9-Apr
Betfair	75.64	75.20	75.64	66.67	70.05	72.15	70.83	69.28
CrownBet	78.95	78.95	78.95	78.95	78.95	77.70	76.19	74.70
Ladbrokes	78.95	78.95	78.95	78.95	75.00	75.00	74.07	73.38
Luxbet	81.17	81.17	81.17	80.86	75.10	75.10	76.34	76.34
Sportsbet	78.95	78.95	78.95	78.95	77.49	77.49	75.73	75.73
TABtouch	78.04	78.04	78.04	78.04	75.00	75.00	75.00	75.00
William Hill	78.95	78.95	78.95	78.95	75.73	75.73	75.73	75.73

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About the author

David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.