Betting markets give Labor a faint sniff

Very faint but evident, from Mark the Ballot:

This morning sees further declines in the probability of a Coalition win at the next election according to the betting markets.

House Coalition Odds ($) Labor Odds ($) Coalition Win Probability (%)
2016-04-09 Betfair 1.33 3.00 69.28
2016-04-09 CrownBet 1.27 3.75 74.70
2016-04-09 Ladbrokes 1.27 3.50 73.38
2016-04-09 Luxbet 1.24 4.00 76.34
2016-04-09 Sportsbet 1.25 3.90 75.73
2016-04-09 TABtouch 1.25 3.75 75.00
2016-04-09 William Hill 1.25 3.90 75.73
Sa 2-Apr Su 3-Apr Mo 4-Apr Tu 5-Apr We 6-Apr Th 7-Apr Fr 8-Apr Sa 9-Apr
Betfair 75.64 75.20 75.64 66.67 70.05 72.15 70.83 69.28
CrownBet 78.95 78.95 78.95 78.95 78.95 77.70 76.19 74.70
Ladbrokes 78.95 78.95 78.95 78.95 75.00 75.00 74.07 73.38
Luxbet 81.17 81.17 81.17 80.86 75.10 75.10 76.34 76.34
Sportsbet 78.95 78.95 78.95 78.95 77.49 77.49 75.73 75.73
TABtouch 78.04 78.04 78.04 78.04 75.00 75.00 75.00 75.00
William Hill 78.95 78.95 78.95 78.95 75.73 75.73 75.73 75.73
David Llewellyn-Smith


  1. I wonder what the graphs were like for the last SA and QLD state elections.

    Maybe the era of giving a bad federal government a second chance ended in 1998 when Howard nearly lost.

  2. Terror Australis

    Labor has 55 seats (57 notional after the AEC redistribution).
    To win outright govt they need 19 seats AND not lose any seats like Batman or Wills to the Greens. Tough hill to climb I think.

    My money is on another hung parliament.
    2010 was so much fun, lets do it all again.

    Meanwhile, in the senate the star wars cantina will probably just get a different set of patrons, to MTs disgust. NXT 3 seats, Lambie (probably), Lazarus, Lleyonhelm, Day (possibly). And with the lower DD senate quota, don’t be surprised if somewhere in the country a dark horse like Sex Party, Christians, One Nation or Shooters & Fishers jag a final senate placing.

    • Mining BoganMEMBER

      Well, the hung parliament was a lot more efficient and open than what we’ve seen since. It seems to stop pollies getting lazy.

      Are lazy pollies more open for corruption opportunities? Bet your arse they are…

  3. it’s bad when someone’s personal preferences affect their fundamental business decisions
    I guess volume of bets on political parties is so small that they can afford a loss for some kind of support for their mates.

  4. Ronin8317MEMBER

    According to the Australian today, Malcolm Turnbull is going to bring the ‘Very Fast Train’ between Sydney and Melbourne to the election. W.T.F.??? Another couple of million spent on ‘studies’ which will come back and say it’s totally nonviable? ALP’s chance of winning government just got better.

    • Shorten ought to match that promise and fund it by a carbon price and the reduced need to widen motorways and runways.

      Abbott hates railways, so I do not see his faction letting Turnbull take HSR to the election.

    • That’s a very hollow objective. LNP would do more damage while in power. Say good bye to public health and education just so you could see TSHTF on their watch. And if it does blow up, LNP would prevent a royal commission into the whole mess, and probably leave the criminals in their jobs and even give them a bonus.

  5. Since when has the betting market being a reliable indicator of elections. Shall I remind you the recent Vic and QLD elections?