I have advised the government to move to the polls as early as possible on the basis that the economy is going to get worse in the second half of the year and perhaps the PM has taken that on. From the AFR:
After three days of filibustering and other time-wasting tactics by Labor and the independent Senate crossbenchers, the government and the Greens were set to use their combined majority to pass the rules that will prevent micro parties gaming the preference system to win Senate spots with a small primary vote.
…Mr Turnbull still needs to engineer a way to pull forward the May 10 budget by a week to May 3. This is because he needs time to pass the budget supply bills through both houses and then call a double-dissolution election on May 11, the last possible date it can be called.
Labor, the Greens and the independents will use their combined majority to prevent an early Senate recall. Consequently, Mr Turnbull is considering recalling the House of Representatives for a May 3 budget, passing the supply bills that week, putting them through the Senate on May 10 and calling the election the next day.
It’s worth speculating on why else PM Turnbull is in such a hurry given the obvious ballot box cost of going early. Various reasons spring to mind:
- a long and rational debate about policy would not serve the Government well. It is Labor that has seized the policy initiative, most notably on negative gearing but much more widely as well in tax reform, education, carbon etc. Thus a calm and considered electorate will favour Labor though it must also be said that a weakening economy will turn the electorate off more radical change. Even so, a short and hysterical fear campaign is clearly what PM Turnbull has in mind and he knows that it is so hollow that is has a very short shelf life;
- Tony Abbott and the loon pond destabilisers have suddenly gone quiet as their head of disruption is investigated by the police for national security breaches in leaking Defense documents. The PM is on the front foot in his battle with the troglodyes for the first time in a while and will want to strike the electorate while he appears to be in charge. It’s possible that Tony Abbott is so incompetent that he can’t even run an effective destabilisation campaign from the shadows and a re-elected Turnbull will have a lot more power in the party than a deposing Turnbull;
- PM Turnbull might also be considering advice from Treasury and RBA to urgently do nothing on the policy front so as to avoid upsetting consumers. If it were up to our bubble managers I’m sure that they would cancel the election altogether. But a shorter campaign is certainly less likely to harm consumption in the way that the long 2013 slog did.
In short, any way that you cut it, going to the polls early is a deep negative and black mark against the incumbent PM.
