From Bernstein, it’s not via cash:
…a US$1 million in $100 notes would weigh roughly 10kg (22 lbs.). A US$1 million in RMB100 notes would weigh 75kg (165lbs). If you are planning to start carrying large amounts of cash across international borders and are hoping not to get noticed, choose USD (also lighter than gold at the moment, by value).
As an extreme illustration of how inefficient physically carrying RMB across the Chinese border is as a means of creating systemic risk to the economy, if Chinese residents tried to take the $100 billion that has been leaving China each month recently out via from Shanghai Pudong airport, it would require that roughly one-fifth of all passengers on international flights out of PVG each day were currency mules. The math is relatively straightforward: $100 billion in RMB100 notes weighs 7,500 tons. Baggage allowance is currently 30 kg. Assume that they use plastic bags and that there is (for whatever reason) no interference from customs officials. That would require ~290,000 currency mules each month. Roughly 1.5M people fly out of Pudong on international flights each month. In this scenario, roughly one-fifth of them would have to be “holding”.
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