S&P: Mortgage arrears climb in January

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From S&P today:

MELBOURNE (Standard & Poor’s) March 18, 2016–Australian housing loans in arrears increased again in January for prime and nonconforming residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS), as measured by Standard & Poor’s Performance Index (SPIN). Arrears levels for prime RMBS increased to 1.07% in January 2016 from 0.96% in December 2015, according to Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services’ recently published “RMBS Arrears Statistics: Australia” report. Arrears for both full documentation (Full Doc) and low documentation (Low Doc) loans increased over the month to 1.02% and 4.36% respectively. Nonconforming RMBS loans in arrears also increased to 4.91% from 4.63% a month earlier. In our observation, arrears levels tend to increase in December, January, and sometimes February, reflecting seasonal fluctuations particularly the impact of Christmas spending and the January sales period. We generally expect to see arrears levels start to trend down from their seasonal peaks by March, providing economic conditions remain relatively stable. With Low Doc loans now comprising a smaller percentage of the total RMBS portfolio, at 1.35% as at January 2016, arrears levels for prime loans underlying Australian RMBS transactions are still well below their peak of 1.69%, reflecting the improved collateral quality of the portfolio.

To the charts. We appear to be about to go positive year-on-year:

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It’s more prime than low doc:

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It’s more regional banks than majors though everything is on the turn upwards:

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About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.