Poop Morrison: China slowdown “entirely predictable”

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From the AFR:

Mr Morrison is still positive about the Chinese economy.

“Why would we be gloomy about the China picture? As a government we haven’t been drawn into the global group-think about the slowdown in China. The slow down was not a surprise, it was entirely predictable that it would eventually occur.”

Yes, it was, as Michael Pettis, MB and others warned. But it was not predicted by the Australian Government:

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Nor the RBA:

Graph 1: Terms of Trade Forecasts

On the contrary. Both assumed the China boom was a “structural adjustment” that would boost commodity prices to a permanently high plateau and hence they deliberately hollowed Australia out to “make room” for mining-led growth, only to then enter a panic reversal and pursue economic “rebalancing” in the other direction supported by a renewed housing bubble.

The only thing entirely predictable in all of it was official misjudgment of China.

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About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.